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In recent years, the most notable example of a special election serving as a barometer of national trends took place in Kentucky in 1994, when Republican Ron Lewis succeeded the late Democratic Rep. William Natcher. The seat-like the House itself -- had been in Democratic hands for decades, and the race was a harbinger of the landslide that fall that propelled the GOP to a majority for the first time in 40 years. Whatever its value as a national barometer, a contested special election serves as a warm-up of sorts for the two political parties to test their organizations, gauge the effectiveness of television commercials on public opinion and build enthusiasm among donors. In the case of Arizona, Democrats test-marketed commercials that accused Republican Jesse Kelly of wanting to cut taxes for millionaires and phase out Social Security and Medicare. Barber, echoing the same themes, promised "no cuts, no way" to either program. Referring to the budget that cleared the Republican-controlled House earlier in the year, Democrats circulated a post-election memo that said "every Republican incumbent shares Kelly's vulnerabilities" on the same issues, and 84 of those districts are more Democratic than the one Barber won. For its part, the National Republican Congressional Committee ran ads that said Barber supported the health care law that Obama won from Congress in 2010 and includes cuts totaling $500 billion from Medicare. "Rubber stamp Ron Barber," they called him, a ready vote for Obama's policies. Their commercials showed pictures of Barber, Obama and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, a linkage meant to be unflattering, and a reminder of a tactic that many Democrats blamed for the loss of their seats in 2010. Whatever the national significance of the race, if any, Democrats moved swiftly to capitalize among donors. "We did it," the House Majority PAC wrote in an email to supporters that sought contributions for the fall campaign.
[Associated
Press;
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