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"Positive data surprises lead very rapidly to adjustments in expectations," Kasikov said. "The upside surprise momentum is fading a bit as expectations have adjusted." POLITICS: The public's perception of the economy has improved in recent months. And Obama has benefited. But analysts warn that voters remain cautious. Any setback in the trend could reverse the brighter outlook. Previous improvements in public sentiment about the economy haven't lasted. In an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 48 percent said they approved of how Obama was handling the economy, up 9 points from December. And 30 percent of Americans described the economy as "good"
-- a 15-point jump from December and the highest level since the AP-GfK poll first asked the question in 2009. But Matt McDonald, a partner at Hamilton Strategies, a consulting firm, said the White House has prematurely celebrated positive economic news before. After some strong jobs figure emerged in the spring of 2010, Vice President Joe Biden began touting the "recovery summer." The economy then sputtered. More such missteps could erode the administration's credibility on the economy, said McDonald, who worked in the White House under President George W. Bush in 2005. "It would be a big risk for the White House to declare victory again," McDonald said. "Instead of the boy who cried wolf, it would be the president who cried jobs." CONSUMERS: The healthier-than-expected job growth has brightened consumers' view of the economy. A gauge of consumer confidence surged in February to its highest point in a year, far above where it stood in October before the jobs and economic news improved. A more confident consumer is more likely to keep spending and driving further economic growth. For consumers, expectations "color the perspective of what is a good number and what is not," McDonald said. When the job market's gains surpass forecasts, news reports seize on the improvements and help lift consumer sentiment. Still, Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, cautions that consumers are still wary of the economic rebound, unsure if it will endure after previous false starts. Though most Americans now think the economy is recovering or will soon do so, about 40 percent still see the economy as "poor." That figure hasn't changed much in the past year. The economy might have to consistently top expectations to solidify their confidence. "Public confidence in the recovery is fragile," Kohut said. "I think they need to see more positive reports before their judgments about the future become markedly better."
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