 Typically, presidential nominees would be decided in party caucuses
and primaries well before Illinois voters get to their primaries.
"For the first time in decades, Illinois will be a factor in the
presidential primary," said Jim Nowlan, a political scientist at the
Institute for Government and Public Affairs, a public policy
research center at the University of Illinois.
The race for the GOP nod has been close since the Iowa caucuses
in January kicked off election season, making every primary
important, and many primaries nail-bitingly close.
Illinois looks to be no different.
A Chicago Tribune poll released Monday shows former Massachusetts
Gov. Mitt Romney out in front, with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum
of Pennsylvania running second. Romney's support is centered around
Chicagoland, while Santorum's base is built around downstate,
according to the poll. In the survey of 600 Republicans registered
in Illinois, 35 percent said they favored Romney, while 31 percent
gave a nod to Santorum. The margin of error was plus or minus 4
percentage points.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia was favored by 16
percent of those polled, and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was favored
by 7 percent.
Besides having less popular support than Romney among Republican
voters, Santorum handicapped himself early on in Illinois. Santorum
appointed just 44 of 54 delegates in the state. The other three
candidates all have a full slate of 54 delegates.
Illinois' 54 elected delegates are divided by congressional
districts. Each of the state's 19 congressional district gets at
least two delegates, while some districts can get up to four. The
state also has 15 so-called "floaters," voting for whomever they
want at the nominating convention.
A candidate who wins the popular vote in a congressional district
gets all the delegates in that district. Those delegates go on to
cast votes for their candidates at the Republican National
Convention in Tampa in August.
Even if Santorum wins the popular vote in Illinois, he can still
get only 44 delegates, because he failed to nominate delegates in
four congressional districts.
"His campaign filed at the end of the day on the last day to
file. Once you've missed that filing window, you've missed the
filing window," said Ken Menzel, a spokesman for the Illinois State
Board of Elections.
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The contest in Illinois comes after months of Republican debates and
primaries, with each candidate pitching their vision for America --
and their criticisms of President Obama's policies -- to voters
across the country.
Voters in Mississippi, Alabama and Hawaii cast ballots in GOP
primaries on Tuesday. Missouri Republican voters go to the polls
Saturday.
The candidates have been advertising on the state's airwaves and
rallying supporters to contribute to their campaigns.
According to the filings with the Federal Election Commission,
Romney has raised $1.9 million in Illinois; Paul has raised
$451,800; Gingrich, $247,600; and Santorum, $106,100.
"In Illinois, the polls suggest a small Romney lead over
Santorum, but with plenty of undecideds," said Brian Gaines, a
political scientist at the University of Illinois. "I suspect that
it will be a fairly small Romney 'win' in total votes. At this
point, I have a hard time imagining anyone except Romney winning the
candidacy."
Dan Rutherford, who is the Illinois state treasurer and the
chairman of Romney's Illinois campaign, said he believes Romney's
business prowess -- he was a former private equity manager -- will
impress voters in a state such as Illinois, which is plagued with
financial problems.
"The strongest quality he brings is private sector experience,
and that's what we need," Rutherford said.
Representatives from the Gingrich and Paul campaigns couldn't be
reached for comment.
Jon Zahm, a member of the Henry County Board and director of
Santorum's Illinois campaign, said even though Santorum has raised
far less money than Romney, Santorum is a viable candidate.
"I think his 'Made in the USA' jobs plan, which wants to bring
manufacturing back to the Midwest, has a lot of appeal in Illinois,"
Zahm said.
[Illinois
Statehouse News; By ANTHONY BRINO]
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