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Marie Diron, a senior economic adviser at Ernst & Young, forecasts unemployment will rise through 2013 and a peak a little under 20 million in the last quarter of the year. She said that by then, companies that have become "leaner and fitter" could fuel growth and start hiring again. "But before we reach that stage, there is unfortunately more pain to go through with high social costs," Diron said. At present, the five euro countries at the forefront of the debt crisis
-- Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Portugal -- are in recession. Others, like the Netherlands and Austria -- neither of which is particularly debt-laden
-- are also close to officially falling into recession, having posting declines in third-quarter economic output. Austria nevertheless has the lowest unemployment rate in the eurozone, at 4.3 percent. The currency bloc's powerhouse economies, such as Germany and France, have also seen growth levels fall in the last year and that's ratcheted up the pressure on businesses to cut costs. Industrial conglomerate Siemens AG, for example, announced Friday it would cut another 4,700 jobs, not all in Germany. Germany's unemployment rate stood at a still-low 5.4 percent in October, but France's was nearly double that at 10.7 percent.
Households got some good news in separate figures showing the annual inflation rate in the eurozone fell by more than anticipated to a 23-month low of 2.2 percent in November from 2.5 percent the previous month. Since it was a preliminary estimate, Eurostat gave no reasons behind the decline but waning labor market pressures to lift wages are likely to have been, at least partially, behind the fall. "We think inflation could fall quite a bit further over the next year or so in response to the spare capacity in the economy, helping to ease the squeeze on households' real incomes," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics. "But whether that will get them spending in an environment of austerity and rising unemployment is another matter." Despite the November decline, inflation is still above the ECB's target of keeping price rises at just below 2 percent. Few economists think the ECB will cut its main interest rate from the current record low of 0.75 percent at its monthly policy meeting next Thursday.
[Associated
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