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Carl Thayer, an expert who has extensively studied the territorial conflicts, said ASEAN may have committed a strategic mistake of agreeing to a crucial process that could easily be stalled by China, which would not commit to anything that would restrict its plans. "ASEAN is stuck in a bureaucratic rut," Thayer said. The battle for ownership of potentially oil-rich territories in the South China Sea has settled into an uneasy standoff since the last fighting, involving China and Vietnam, which killed more than 70 Vietnamese sailors in 1988. The other claimants are Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan. New skirmishes, however, have erupted in the last two years, involving Vietnam, the Philippines and China, which claims the busy waterway virtually in its entirety. Concerns have been exacerbated by China's deployment of a patrol ship, equipped with a helipad, to guard its claimed areas and establishment last year of what they called Sansha city on a remote island to administer territories being contested by rival claimant countries. A tense standoff that erupted last year between Chinese and Filipino ships over the Scarborough Shoal has remained unresolved, prompting the Philippines in January to take a daring legal step that challenged China's vast claims before a tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China has ignored the move. Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said all the five arbiters of the tribunal have been appointed and they could now start looking into the case if they declare they have jurisdiction. The long-raging disputes have threatened to divide ASEAN. Last year, its foreign ministers failed to issue a joint statement
-- a first in the bloc's 45-year history -- after Cambodia refused mention of the territorial rifts in the communique, provoking protests from Vietnam and the Philippines. Cambodia, a known China ally, has towed Beijing's line that the disputes should not be brought to the international arena. China wants the disputes settled by negotiating one on one with each of the rival claimants, something that will give it an advantage because of its sheer size.
[Associated
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