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 While that analysis has become the received wisdom, political
experts are less convinced, suggesting that while there may be an
increase in protest votes, it's unlikely to be anywhere near as
large as some have predicted.
Earlier this year, there was talk among officials of a protest vote
of up to 30 percent, meaning up to 250 of the 751 seats in
parliament being taken by candidates from non-mainstream parties on
the far-left or far-right.
Such a large protest vote, the analysis went, could lead to serious
disruptions in parliament, making it much harder to forge a majority
on critical legislation, even if the protest candidates were of
widely divergent views and not united.
But more recent analysis suggests the anti-European vote, while
substantial, will be more contained, and fears of a vast surge in
support for the far-right across the 28 countries in the European
Union may be overstated, even if parties such as Britain's UKIP and
Finland's True Finns may do well.
"Mainstream Eurosceptics have been around for a while now and have
never been truly obstructive forces," Cas Mudde, an assistant
professor at the University of Georgia and an expert in Europe's
right-wing populist parties, wrote last month.
"While the upcoming European elections will undoubtedly see an
unprecedented success for 'anti-EU populist' parties, the next
European Parliament will remain a bastion of pro-EU and soft
Eurosceptic forces, with all the power to enforce its will on the
tiny minority of disorganized dissenters."
Guy Verhofstadt, a former prime minister of Belgium who is running
to be the top candidate for the Liberal alliance in the elections,
believes the vote, which takes place across the EU from May 22-25,
will produce other unexpected outcomes.
"Because everyone now expects this populist surge, it won't be a
surprise on the night if it actually does happen," he told a Reuters
seminar on the future of Europe on Thursday.
"I actually think the election will produce other surprises; it
won't be the far-right or far-left protest vote."
BIG PARTIES TOGETHER?
Verhofstadt, who has the backing of parties in Belgium, Luxembourg
and the Netherlands but must overcome the challenge of Olli Rehn,
the EU's economics commissioner, to be named the sole Liberal
candidate for European Commission president, is hoping his party can
hold its own come May.
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At the last elections in 2009, the Liberals were the third largest
bloc, behind the dominant centre-right European People's Party (EPP)
and the centre-left Social Democrats, securing 11.5 percent of the
seats in parliament.
In Britain, the Liberals are the junior party in the
Conservative-led coalition, a position that has hit their popularity
and may hurt them in Europe. Overall, polls suggest the Liberals
will remain the third largest party after May's vote, even if their
representation declines slightly.
The leading party is forecast to remain the EPP, although it could
lose around 40-50 seats, while the Socialists should gain a fair
number of seats and solidify their position as the second-largest
presence across Europe.
The key question is where that leaves the 'non-mainstream' groups — the far-right and far-left parties, or movements such as Germany's
anti-euro AfD or Italy's Five Star, that are not part of the
traditional five or so largest parliamentary blocs.
Recent polling by Gallup suggests far-right 'protest' candidates may
secure around 30 seats and the far-left as many as 60, while there
are other far-left and far-right elements tucked away among the more
traditional blocs.
With all allegiances considered, there may be a raw 'protest'
element across the political spectrum of up to 150 seats — potentially the third-largest presence in parliament but not a
coordinated one or one that agrees on many policies.
The bottom line is that next year's election result may oblige the
three biggest blocs to overcome traditional differences and
coordinate more closely on legislation.
"We're going to have to work much better together," said
Verhofstadt, who has at times been seen as a divisive force because
of his ardently federalist ambitions for Europe.
That may be a big ask ahead of the elections, with party divisions
critical to securing votes. But once the results are in, a "grand
coalition" among elements of the big three big blocs, all of them
broadly pro-EU, may well emerge.
(Writing by Luke Baker; editing by Charlie Dunmore)
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