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"That's one of the wonderful things about tobacco," he said. "You can't count the plant out until you destroy the crop. It can be extremely dry and you get a few rains and you can make a crop. Or it can be really wet and it gets dry, and the plants put a root system down." In Tennessee, yields will be down from a year ago due to a wet spring and early summer, said Bob Miller, a tobacco researcher for UK and the University of Tennessee. "We've had way more water than tobacco likes," Miller said. In Virginia, the nation's No. 3 tobacco producer and home to Marlboro maker Philip Morris USA, the rainy conditions prevented tobacco plants from setting deep roots. "In terms of damage or loss, we haven't lost very much. It's been limited," said David Reed from Virginia Tech's Southern Piedmont Agricultural Research and Extension Center. "We're going to be OK unless it absolutely turns off dry in August." Despite the plants being shallow-rooted and having a thin leaf, Virginia has the potential for a good crop, he said. The prospect of lower yields in Kentucky comes as burley farmers hoped to reap some of their highest leaf prices since the 2004 tobacco buyout. The buyout ended a system in which tobacco growers sold their crop under federal production and price controls dating back to the Depression. Tobacco now is mostly grown under contracts between farmers and tobacco companies.
Last year's burley and dark tobacco crops in Kentucky exceeded $400 million in sales for the first time since the buyout. And until the recent wave of rainfall, this year's crops had the same potential due to burley prices expected to be around $2 per pound, said UK agricultural economist Will Snell. For Elliott, the 34-year-old who farms the same ground tended by his grandfather and father, tobacco accounts for nearly a third of his income from a diversified operation that includes cattle, corn and soybeans. While his tobacco has suffered from the rains, his corn and soybeans have thrived, a trend being seen across most of Kentucky. Elliott said he will still plant burley next year, regardless the outcome this year. "It's been too good to me over the years," he said. "I can't just up and quit."
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