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 Independent research supports the belief by these lawmakers that they owe their jobs to increasingly conservative activists, and that it's safer than ever to veer right on many subjects rather than seek compromise with Democrats.
On the flip side, House Democrats face a more liberal-leaning electorate in their own primary elections. But the trend is less dramatic for Democrats, whose supporters are more open to compromise to help government work, polls show. And Republican control of the House makes the GOP dynamic more consequential.
The House's recent struggles to handle once-routine tasks -- such as passing a bipartisan farm bill and raising the federal debt limit -- partly stem from the millions of Republican primary voters who elect representatives with stern warnings not to compromise with Democrats. It's also a reason that efforts to rewrite the nation's immigration laws face problems in the House, where Republicans quickly dismissed the Senate's bipartisan approach.
In interviews, House Republicans often cite worries about a possible challenge from the right in their next primary. Many of them represent districts so strongly Republican that it's all but impossible for the party's nominee to lose a general election to a Democrat. Also, these lawmakers say, it's highly unlikely that a moderate Republican can wrest the party's nomination from a conservative incumbent.
"There aren't a whole lot of moderate Republicans who participate in the primary in a conservative district," said Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Texas.
That leaves many House Republicans with only one prerequisite to assure their re-election: Never give a hard-charging conservative enough room on the right to mount a viable challenge in the primary.
In practice, the task doesn't seem so hard. Only six House Republicans lost their re-election primaries last year. Half of them fell to fellow incumbents in redrawn districts that forced two colleagues to oppose each other. The other three lost to challengers with strong tea party support.
Rep. Jean Schmidt's loss was instructive. A conservative by almost any measure, the three-term Ohioan was attacked nonetheless for voting to raise the federal debt ceiling and for giving President Barack Obama a peck on the cheek as he entered the House for his 2012 State of the Union address.
Memories of what happened to Schmidt -- and to veteran Republican senators such as Bob Bennett and Richard Lugar, who also lost primaries to tea party-backed challengers -- come up repeatedly in political discussions, House insiders say. GOP lawmakers regularly take the temperature of their districts' conservative activists, who are crucial in primary elections, which often draw modest turnouts.
"House members are better at reading their districts than anyone else," said Republican lobbyist and pollster Mike McKenna.
McKenna said it's not unusual to discuss immigration reform with House Republicans who say, "I'm getting emails from people who vote in primaries. They say
'I don't care what the Farm Bureau says, I hate this stuff.'"
Rep. John Fleming, R-La., tracks such emails and phone calls. He said his office recently received 80 calls about immigration, "and all of them were against the Senate bill."
The Senate bill would create a pathway to citizenship -- or what many conservatives call "amnesty" -- for millions of immigrants living here illegally. Fleming, asked whether he ever worries about going too far right for GOP primary voters in his district, said: "What's the chance of a moderate Republican coming in and saying,
'Oh, I'm for amnesty'?"
Marchant, the Texas congressman, said he's a lifelong conservative who has watched GOP primary voters in his west-Dallas district lean increasingly to the right. Tea partyers who once cast their votes for Libertarian Party candidates, he said, now are full-fledged Republicans.
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"The mainstream Republicans, as a result, have become more
conservative," Marchant said. Tea party activists, he said, "found
that they could go into the Republican primary and make a real
difference."
GOP Rep. Howard Coble, elected to 15 terms from central North Carolina, dates
the change in primary voters' behavior to the mid-1990s. Conservative groups, he
said, "were challenging Bob Dole for not being pure enough."
"That has opened the gates to primary races" against Republican incumbents,
Coble said.
Voter surveys support the view that Republican voters are becoming more
conservative.
On average, from 1976 through 1990, 47 percent of people who voted Republican
in House races considered themselves conservative, according to exit polls. A
slightly smaller share called themselves political moderates.
During Bill Clinton's presidency -- which included bruising fights over health
care, gun control, taxes and his impeachment -- Republicans' conservatism began
rising. From 1992 through 2006, GOP voters were 52 percent conservative on
average and 41 percent moderate.
And in the most recent House elections, 2008 through 2012, more than 6 in 10
voters who backed a GOP candidate described themselves as conservative. About a
third called themselves moderate.
Meanwhile, those who vote for House Democrats have become more liberal. But
self-described liberals still comprise less than half of that group. In the
pre-Clinton years, 25 percent considered themselves liberal; 33 percent on
average did so from 1992 to 2006; and it stands at 40 percent across the last
three elections.
Michael Dimock, who tracks such trends for the Pew Research Center, said that
several years ago there was a notable difference between social conservatives
and business conservatives in the Republican Party. Today, he said, Republican
voters are more unified -- and solidly conservative.
"The socially conservative right has adopted that anti-government,
small-government principle, and it's largely consolidated," Dimock said.
Rep. David Price has watched the two congressional parties grow farther apart
for decades, first as a Duke University political science professor, and for 25
years as a Democratic House member from North Carolina.
At a recent Yale University conference on Congress, Price said: "Reaching
agreement was extraordinarily difficult in the 1990s. It seems almost impossible
now."
[Associated
Press; By CHARLES BABINGTON]
Associated Press
Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
Follow Charles Babington
on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/cbabington.
Copyright 2013 The Associated
Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
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