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Hurst expects CNG vehicle sales to grow by 10 percent per year through 2019, when he's forecasting sales of 39,864. In a market where 16 million new cars and trucks are sold each year, that's still less than 1 percent. But Hurst expects to see steady demand from governments and other fleet buyers and new offerings to meet those demands. For example, Ford plans to release a CNG version of its Lincoln MKT crossover
-- which is sold to limousine companies -- in 2014. Hurst doesn't anticipate a big uptick in sales to general consumers. Price is a problem. With a starting price of $26,305, a 2013 natural gas Civic costs $8,100 more than the base gas model. Big trucks that burn 20,000 to 40,000 gallons of gas a year can easily make up that difference, but it takes far longer for regular consumers, who may only use 500 gallons per year. Home fueling stations add $4,000 to $6,000 to that cost. Range is also a concern. The U.S. has 1,100 natural gas fueling stations and only about half are open to the public. A natural gas Civic can go around 200 miles on a tank. That's better than an electric car, which might go 100 miles on a charge. But it's less than the 300 to 350 miles a driver can go on a tank of gas in a regular Civic. All those things could change. GE is trying to develop a $500 home fueling station, and the federal government could encourage sales with tax credits, as it has done with its $7,500 electric vehicle credit. Some states are already giving tax credits to CNG vehicle buyers, including West Virginia
-- which gives up to $7,500 for smaller vehicles and $20,000 for trucks -- and Colorado, which gives up to $6,000. "Once we get a good home refueling station, you'll never have to go to a gas station again unless you like their coffee," said Jon Coleman, Ford's fleet sustainability manager. Coleman thinks sales to individuals will one day outpace sales to fleets because natural gas is so plentiful and is already being piped into millions of homes. For now, Coleman works mostly with corporate and government fleets, which appreciate the stability of natural gas prices compared with gasoline. Irving, Texas-based oil and gas company Pioneer Natural Resources recently ordered 250 F-250 pickups that can run on a combination of gas and natural gas. The company already has 50 bi-fuel vehicles, and wants to convert most of its fleet by 2015, according to Lynn Lyon, Pioneer's director of fuel market development. Lyon, who uses a bi-fuel F-250 as her personal vehicle, says it seamlessly switches between gas and natural gas and is easy to fill up. But more important, the company is paying $2 less per gallon than if it was only buying gasoline, she said. "People will drive across town to save 10 cents a gallon at the pump. What would you do to save $1 or more?" she said.
[Associated
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