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 The highly popular Bachelet is widely expected to win Dec. 15 over
her childhood friend and conservative Evelyn Matthei, the No. 2
candidate in Sunday's nine-person field. But she will face a tough
second term.
After years of angry street protests demanding profound changes in
Chile's power structure and a reversal of dictatorship-era policies
that foster vast inequality, Bachelet promised in her campaign to
deliver reform. But more than half of the voters stayed home Sunday.
"It's very likely that the same ones as usual voted in these
elections and the young didn't vote in great numbers," said Kenneth
Bunker, a Chilean doctoral candidate in political science at the
London School of Economics.
"This shows that although the offers by the candidates had a lot to
do with demands of the street, the young didn't vote for the
candidates who proposed what they demanded. Bachelet didn't win with
the vote of the young. She won with the traditional vote."
While the precise balance of Congress remained undetermined Sunday
night, Bachelet's New Majority coalition had the simple majority
needed for tax changes, but it clearly didn't win enough seats to
change the electoral system or the dictatorship-era constitution.
The student movement may still prove to have a key role still to
play, Bunker said. To push through educational reforms, Bachelet
will need 22 senators and 69 deputies and just may have the numbers
if she can persuade two student leaders elected to the lower house
and an independent senator to join her, he said.
"If Bachelet gets this ample majority, she'll be much stronger in
the second round because she'll be able to promise educational
reform," he said. "If not, she'll win the presidential elections,
but it will be a lot harder for people to like her."
Dictatorship-era rules require voting majorities in Congress of 57
percent for educational reform, 60 percent for electoral reform and
nearly 67 percent for constitutional changes.
Bachelet, 62, left office with an 84 percent approval rating after
her 2006-10 presidency despite failing then to bring about major
changes in society. This time, she has taken up the cause of
protesters, vowing to revamp the constitution, raise corporate taxes
to 25 percent from 20 percent to fund an education overhaul, and
reduce the wealth gap.
A runoff victory for Bachelet looks almost certain with most
anti-establishment candidates likely to either abstain or support
her in the second round.
Her closest rival, Matthei, got 25 percent of the votes and
celebrated getting another try at Bachelet, this time in a
one-on-one race.
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Matthei, 60, an outspoken former labor minister, says Chile must
continue business-friendly policies she credits for fast growth and
low unemployment under center-right President Sebastian Pinera. She
is against changing the constitution drafted during the dictatorship
years and favors funding government programs through improved
economic growth, not by raising taxes.
"Both candidates have to try to charm a great percentage of the
voters in the second round," said Guillermo Holzmann, a political
science professor at the Universidad de Valparaiso. "For Bachelet
that means incentivizing voters without moving too far left. For
Matthei, it's making credible that Pinera's government should have
continuity."
Chile is the world's top copper producer, and its fast-growing
economy, low unemployment and stable democracy are the envy of Latin
America. But millions of Chileans have taken to the streets in
recent years, venting frustration over the huge gap between rich and
poor and the country's chronically underfunded education system.
Student leaders have focused their demands on restoring free,
quality public education and have said they can bring about that
change through votes after previously devoting most of their
energies into street protests.
But student groups have warned that they'll go back to streets if
their demands are not met, and their demands have grown.
Like many other Chileans, students want a new constitution to
replace the top-down political system dictated by Gen. Augusto
Pinochet's dictatorship, and popular referendums to give Chileans a
direct voice.
"Bachelet is likely to win," Holzmann said. "But it's going to get
really hard for her when she becomes president."
[Associated
Press; LUIS ANDRES HENAO and
MICHAEL WARREN]
Associated Press writer
Luis Andres Henao reported this story in Santiago and Michael Warren
reported from Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Luis Henao on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/LuisAndresHenao
Michael Warren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/mwarrenap
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