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 This country already is plagued by drug violence, poverty,
corruption and the legacy of a 2009 coup. Now, if polls are
accurate, Sunday's vote could fail to produce a clear winner.
The election pits Xiomara Castro, whose husband Manuel Zelaya was
overthrown in a military-backed coup, against Juan Orlando
Hernandez, the candidate of the ruling conservative National Party.
Polls show the two in a statistical tie, ominous in this failing
state with 8.5 million and the world's highest homicide rate.
"We'll accept the results if they're clean. If they're not, the
people have the right to defend their vote," said Enrique Reina,
Castro's campaign coordinator. Castro's party says it has a
contingency plan if it suspects fraud, though it won't say what.
And while Hernandez has vowed to respect the results, analysts say a
close vote could bring chaos.
Even if the election is fair and transparent it will be difficult to
convince supporters of the losing candidate that it wasn't stolen,
said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas.
"You need someone or some people to stand up and be statesmen. And
I'm not sure who would do that in the Honduran context, truthfully."
U.S. Ambassador Lisa Kubiske has called on both candidates to wait
for official results to declare victory, a process that could take
several days.
The latest poll puts Hernandez at 28 percent and Castro at 27, with
30 percent divided among six other candidates in an election with no
runoff. The CID-Gallup poll surveyed 2,000 people in person and had
a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
Castro, 54, had been leading for months as the candidate for change,
promising relief from the violence and poverty that have only
increased in the four years since President Porfirio Lobo took
office.
She is even drawing support from some of the people who deposed her
husband, including Adolfo Facusse, a businessman who heads the
National Association of Industrialists. His U.S. visa was pulled for
his role in the putsch against Zelaya.
"We're with Xiomara if she opts for the path of the moderate left,
like we've seen in Nicaragua or El Salvador," Facusse said, naming
two Central American countries run by pro-business leftists. He said
Lobo's conservative National Party has been an "economic disaster"
for the private sector.
Hernandez, 45, has seen his numbers surge in recent weeks by casting
himself as the candidate of law and order, the top issue for most
voters in a country that is overrun by gangs and is the transit
point for much of the cocaine headed from South America to the U.S.
Although he is from the ruling party, as president of congress
Hernandez has pushed through legislation creating a military police
force to patrol the streets in place of the National Police, which
are penetrated by corruption and often accused of extrajudicial
killings.
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The idea is popular among crime-weary Hondurans.
"Military in the streets? Yes, and I hope they stay until the last
gang member in the neighborhood is gone," said Lucia Soto , 32, who
sells food in Flor del Campo, south of Tegucigalpa , and must pay an
extortion to operate.
The program alarms human rights advocates concerned about potential
abuses by the military acting in a civilian role, and the opposition
says the presence of troops that supported a coup just four years
ago is intimidating during campaigning for an election.
The U.S. State Department says the program undermines efforts to
clean up the civilian police, efforts that have failed so far.
About 250 international observers from the European Union, the
United States and the Organization of American States will monitor
the election. The constitution says the victor needs to win only by
one vote. There is no runoff, and the electoral tribunal decides
whether a recount is necessary.
Zelaya, a wealthy rancher, was deposed by his own Liberal party
after he aligned himself with the late Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez. He was attempting to hold a referendum on whether to reform
the constitution, something the Supreme Court called illegal, when
he was whisked out of the country at gunpoint. The National Party
won regularly scheduled elections later that year.
Four years later, there's little appetite for a repeat. Still,
critics charge that Hernandez's campaign ads featuring his new
military police force send a message that the armed forces won't let
his opponent take power.
Despite the political rhetoric, Hondurans are more focused on
pocketbook issues, as the number working on less than minimum wage,
$350 a month, has grown from 28 percent in 2008 to 43 percent today.
Many say they have little faith in either candidate to change that.
"No, I don't vote, I don't listen, I don't know, I don't look," said
Hector Oseguera, 35, who works in a cafe. "I don't trust any of
these people, or what they try to feed me. They're worse than a
cancer on the country."
[Associated
Press; ALBERTO ARCE]
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