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 The previous day saw a demonstration of about 50,000, the largest
since the Orange Revolution in 2004. Here's what got Ukrainian
protesters so angry:
KEY DEAL WITH THE EU
After years of preparations for a landmark deal with the EU,
President Viktor Yanukovych's government announced abruptly last
week that it was putting the agreement on hold and that Ukraine
would focus on improving ties with its giant neighbor Russia.
The decision threw everybody off guard, since Yanukovych promised
just two months ago that the political association and free trade
deal would "absolutely" be signed. Opinion polls show that
Ukrainians prefer the EU to Russia and the anger over snubbing the
deal has spilled into the streets.
Yanukovych sought to defend his move Monday, saying that Ukraine
will still strive to become part of the European community, but that
he had to pause for now to protect jobs, salaries and pensions.
VICTORY FOR RUSSIA
The turnaround is a huge victory for Russia, which has lobbied
aggressively to derail the deal. The Kremlin sees the agreement as
Western encroachment on its historic turf. Ukraine was part of the
Russian empire for centuries before becoming part of the Soviet
Union, and Kiev is the birthplace of orthodox Christianity and
Russian civilization.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin may also feel threatened by a more
democratic Ukraine that would stand in sharp contrast with his
"managed democracy" — a system of manipulated elections and little
tolerance for dissent.
Russia has imposed painful restrictions on some Ukrainian exports in
recent months and warned that further sanctions will follow, were
Kiev to sign the deal.
ECONOMY IN TROUBLE
Yanukovych's Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has sought to defend the
pivot toward Moscow by saying that Ukraine simply could not afford a
trade war with Russia, which accounts for 26 percent of Ukrainian
exports and 32 percent of its imports, according to Dragon Capital,
an investment firm in Kiev.
Ukraine's trade figures with the EU are similar, but the country
also relies on Russia for much of its energy needs and has been
lobbying Moscow to lower the price for natural gas imports.
Azarov has dismissed the financial aid to its troubled economy that
would come with the EU deal as "a pittance" and suggested that
Russia, by contrast, is offering a generous gas discount.
EX-PM IN JAIL
A key sticking point in the EU's negations with Ukraine has been the
jailing of Yanukovych's top foe, the Orange Revolution heroine and
former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
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The West considers her imprisonment politically motivated and
Brussels has warned that it will not sign the deal unless Tymoshenko
is freed.
Two EU envoys have traveled to Ukraine more than 25 times over the
past 18 months trying to persuade Yanukvoych to release her. One of
them, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, has joked that
his wife even began to suspect that he has a second family in
Ukraine.
But Yanukovych has resisted the pressure, apparently fearing that
Tymoshenko, whom he closely defeated in the 2010 vote, would
challenge him again in the 2015 presidential election.
Tymoshenko is serving a seven-year prison sentence and has been in
the hospital for a 1 ½ years. The hunger strike announced Monday
would be her third since her arrest in 2011.
WHAT'S NEXT
Yanukovych has maneuvered between Moscow and Brussels, trying to
extract concessions from each side.
Moscow can offer Ukraine gas discounts and financial loans worth
billions of dollars that could help Yanukovych secure another term
in 2015.
The deal with the EU would set up a free-trade zone and open a
prospect of future membership, likely helping Yanukovych to shore up
his dwindling popularity at home. But the EU deal also comes with
the condition to free Tymoshenko, implement painful economic reforms
and hold a clean vote in 2015.
The EU says its offer remains on the table at the summit in Vilnius
that opens Thursday. EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele said
in a televised link from Brussels on Monday that "We are ready and
the door is still open." Putin, too, has acknowledged that the
battle for Ukraine isn't over and it could still opt for the deal
with the EU.
Yanukovych plans to go to Vilnius and may hope to persuade the EU to
drop its demand for Tymoshenko's release.
If the deal fails, many Ukrainians will be highly disappointed and
Ukraine's opposition forces will be energized ahead of the
presidential vote. [Associated
Press; MARIA DANILOVA]
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