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And even before the government shutdown, retailers had reasons to be cautiously optimistic. While the job and housing markets are improving, that hasn't yet translated into sustained spending increases among most shoppers. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other low-priced chains say that customers continue to struggle with a 2 percentage-point increase in the Social Security payroll tax that started on Jan. 1. Those worries hurt stores' sales during the back-to-school shopping season, the second largest shopping period behind the winter holidays. And a slew of retailers lowered their expectations for the rest of the year. An extended government shutdown would only further threaten holiday sales, but it wouldn't be the first time the government's actions have had that impact. Last year, many Americans were worried about tense negotiations to resolve the fiscal cliff, a simultaneous increase in tax rates and a decrease in government spending. Congress and the White House reached a deal on Jan. 1 that prevented income taxes from rising for most households, but many store executives blamed the uncertainty during the height of holiday shopping for a slowdown in sales in late December. Unlike that battle last year, Shay, with the National Retail Federation, said he expects the government shutdown to be over well before the official kickoff to the holiday period on the day after Thanksgiving. "We are optimistic that it could get resolved," he said. "But we still have to be realistic."
[Associated
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