KABUL (Reuters) — The leading candidates
in the race to become Afghanistan's next president have started lobbying
in anticipation of a run-off with final preliminary election results on
Saturday expected to show none of the eight runners winning an absolute
majority.
Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani — both former ministers in
President Hamid Karzai's government — share three-quarters of the
votes counted so far, but voting trends show that neither will
secure the 50 percent needed to win outright.
The expected Abdullah-Ghani run-off would take place at the end of
next month.
Ex-foreign minister Zalmay Rassoul, who is running a distant third
with 11 percent, and former Islamist warlord Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf,
with seven percent, are emerging as the kingmakers headed into the
likely second round.
Access to Rassoul's support base is seen as crucial as he is
believed to have the backing of the powerful Karzai family. Both
Ghani and Abdullah say the outgoing leader will have a place on
their team in an advisory role.
"Sayyaf is a wildcard," said Graeme Smith, a Kabul-based analyst
with the International Crisis Group.
"He showed surprising strength in the campaign, and his voting block
is likely to remain more coherent in a second round than the
coalition that stood behind Rassoul — which gives Sayyaf some
bargaining power as he sits down with the Abullah and Ghani camps."
After 12 years in power, Karzai is constitutionally barred from
running again.
Abdullah, a former foreign minister, has already reached out to
Rassoul. Ghani's camp has refused to detail its behind-the-scenes
negotiations.
An Abdullah-Ghani run-off would take place in late May, unless the
pair strike a deal to avoid what would be a costly and risky second
round of voting.
Both have said the full democratic process should be completed, a
sentiment echoed by the country's Western allies, although some
observers have stated they can see the merit of a deal to swiftly
move on with the political transition.
There are also concerns about security and the cost — the first
round was funded by Washington to the tune of over $100 million.
Restarting the entire process — some ballot boxes are carried by
donkey or mule to and from remote parts of Afghanistan — means it
could be July before a new president is declared.
The United States has not stated publicly a preference for a
candidate, content the top contenders have said they will sign a
security agreement that will allow some U.S. troops to stay behind
after a December deadline for foreign forces to leave.
U.S. relations with Karzai had sharply deteriorated over the past
year. One of the sticking points has been his refusal to sign the
bilateral security agreement permitting the U.S. military to stay on
to train Afghan forces.
CLOSED-DOOR DEAL?
With around three-quarters of the votes counted, Abdullah leads
ex-World Bank economist Ghani by about 11 percent, but he would need
about nearly a million of the 1.2-1.7 million outstanding ballots to
win an absolute majority.
Independent Election Commission (IEC) chief Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani
said this week the numbers showed it was unlikely there would be an
outright winner in the first round.
Sources close to Rassoul told Reuters they had met with Abdullah and
envisage the two sides would work well together on foreign policy
and the peace process with the Taliban.
For years, the Taliban's leadership has refused to negotiate
directly with the government of Karzai. The Taliban says Karzai is
an illegitimate leader installed by United States.
Sayyaf presents himself as a voice of wisdom and a bridge between
warring factions, and says peace can be reached with the Taliban if
they renounce outside influence.
Saturday's final preliminary count will exclude votes being
investigated for fraud, numbering up to half a million ballots.
Final results are due on May 14.
(Additional reporting by Mirwais Harooni;
editing by Michael Perry)
Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani — both former ministers in
President Hamid Karzai's government — share three-quarters of the
votes counted so far, but voting trends show that neither will
secure the 50 percent needed to win outright.
