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 Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed seasonally adjusted
imports rose by 4.5 percent in June, their strongest month-on-month
increase since November 2010 and a bounceback from a sharp drop in
May.
Exports rose by 0.9 percent, nearly double the rate expected by
economists in a Reuters poll.
For the second quarter as a whole, the figures showed exports
increasing marginally compared to the first three months of the year
and imports falling.
But even with a marginal boost from trade, some economists see a
chance of a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) when data
for the second quarter is released next Thursday, and trade groups
are warning of further trouble from the escalating showdown with
Russia.
"Despite the positive result in the first half of the year we are
alarmed by the escalation of the trade conflict with Russia," said
Anton Boerner, head of the BGA trade association, which represents
around 120,000 wholesalers, exporters and service providers.
"Conflicts in the Middle East are also overshadowing the global
economy and therefore weighing on German exports."
According to a Reuters poll, the preliminary GDP data is expected to
show the economy stagnated in the second quarter after powering
ahead in early 2014 due to mild weather.
But a growing chorus of economists is now predicting that the
economy could actually contract for the first time since late 2012.
Other data this week has disappointed, with industrial orders
suffering their sharpest fall in nearly three years due to weak euro
zone demand and below-average bulk orders, and output undershooting
forecasts with only a modest rise.
"(Trade) is unlikely to fully offset the very weak industrial output
data ... meaning that German GDP is likely to have contracted
slightly in the second quarter," said Christian Schulz, senior
economist at Berenberg Bank.
Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING, said net exports were
probably the only growth driver in the second quarter.
RUSSIAN STANDOFF
On Thursday Russia banned many Western food imports in response to
economic sanctions unveiled by the United States and Europe over
Moscow's support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
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Russian exports, which make up about 3.3 percent of total German
exports, fell by around 15 percent in the first five months of 2014
compared with the same period last year.
About 10 percent of exporting firms in Germany ship their goods to
Russia and some of them, including defence firm Rheinmetall and
generic drugmaker Stada warned this week about a hit to business
from the standoff between the West and Moscow.
Some German firms have complained of weak demand in other overseas
regions too. Beiersdorf, makers of Nivea skin cream, said on
Thursday that growth in emerging markets was stuttering. Truck maker
MAN has pointed to falling orders in major South American markets.
A breakdown of unadjusted data showed exports to the euro zone
climbed by 0.3 percent in June compared to the same period last
year, while exports to countries outside of Europe were down 0.9
percent.
Germany's trade surplus narrowed to 16.2 billion euros from 18.8
billion the previous month. The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll
had been for it to shrink to 17.5 billion euros.
(Reporting by Michelle Martin; Editing by Noah Barkin)
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