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 Soto was not deterred. He made another attempt last week but this
time he made it only as far as Arriaga, a wild-west railroad town,
in southern Mexico. He was stopped in his tracks by immigration
officials fanning out to deter migrants from clambering onto 'La
Bestia', or "The Beast", a network of cargo trains bound north.
Pickups carrying immigration agents and police took Soto and fellow
migrants by surprise as they tried to hitch a ride on the train in
Arriaga, sending them running off into the night.
Locals said it was the Mexican authorities' second raid there in
under a week as part of Mexico's strategy to stem a flood of
migrants that poses a headache for U.S. President Barack Obama and
has overwhelmed U.S. border resources.
The White House said last week the number of Central American child
migrants crossing the U.S. border has fallen sharply, but the big
unanswered question remains why.
The U.S. government has pointed to the summer heat, but Reuters
reporting in southern Mexico and Central America shows it is due to
a combination of factors.
They include tighter border policing, raids on the famously
dangerous Bestia like the one that almost ensnared Soto, road
checkpoints, horror tales told by deportees who grappled with drug
gangs on the way north, a U.S.-funded advertising blitz on the
dangers of the journey, and the high-profile arrests of several
human smugglers, or coyotes.
DEBUNKING MYTH OF US AMNESTY
The sight of several planeloads of Central American migrants being
deported, including mothers and children, has helped drive home
Obama's tough message that most of those who enter the country
illegally will be ejected and has gone some way toward debunking the
coyote-spread myth of a U.S. amnesty.
"I'm starting to think it's just not worth it," Soto said, dragging
on a cigarette outside a migrant shelter in Arriaga, the main
jumping-on point for Central American Bestia-riders.
"It's harder, surveillance by Mexican immigration has risen. Before
you could just arrive and board the train ... Now you rarely see
kids," he said as he waited for his sister to send him $50 so he can
take the bus north instead.
Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto last month announced a plan to
make his country's porous southern border with Guatemala more
"orderly", citing improved border crossing facilities and regional
cooperation but offering few specifics.
Mexican officials say they have not asked for anything in return
from the United States, which gives Mexico aid via the Merida
Initiative to fight organized crime.
Some $86 million of that funding is being spent on equipment like
speedboats and 4x4s to patrol Mexico's southern border and stem the
flow of migrants, said a U.S. State Department official, who like
many interviewed for this article asked not to be named to be able
to speak freely.
Another U.S. official said Pena Nieto was angling, behind the
scenes, for his efforts to be recognized with a state visit hosted
by Obama.
REALITY BITES
Carlos Solis, who runs a shelter in Arriaga, said Central American
mothers, many of whom braved the trek north with suckling infants in
their arms, are increasingly wary of risking the gauntlet and no
longer believe rumors of a U.S. amnesty.
"Now that they realize that it was a lie, (the flow) has
diminished," Solis said.
There was a 10 to 15 percent drop in the number of migrants crossing
into southern Mexico without papers in July from a month earlier,
Sergio Alcocer, Mexico's deputy foreign minister responsible for the
United States and Canada, told Reuters in an interview.
Plans were afoot to step up immigration checks and tackle the
thousands of migrants riding atop the Bestia, he said.
"The idea is to refurbish the railway and to make investments ... so
that also the speed of the train can be increased and then the
likelihood of people climbing (on or off) the train will be largely
diminished," he said.
He gave no timeline, but a previously announced revamp of Mexico's
southern railroads is due for completion in 2018.
Other nations in the region have also been discussing the migrant
issue with the United States both publicly and behind the scenes.
A top Honduran official said his government had discussed military
aid with the United States during a visit to Washington in July in
exchange for help with halting Central American migrants at their
origin. He did not specify what kind of aid.
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In private, U.S. officials said the transfer of U.S. military
technology and hardware to Honduras was a non-starter.
In Tecun Uman, a seedy Guatemalan border town, Colonel Albin Dubois
said an anti-drug smuggling task-force he leads and which the United
States is helping to train and equip, has recently started going
after coyote networks. His team has seen a sharp fall in child
migrant numbers.
"I think people are understanding (the risks)," he told Reuters,
citing the impact of reports of arrests such as the capture of seven
coyotes in the area last week.
Charisse Phillips, the No. 2 diplomat at the U.S. embassy in
Guatemala, said there were ongoing discussions with the Guatemalans
to expand U.S. military assistance in fighting drug and people
smuggling networks along the country's northern and southern
borders.
Armed U.S. soldiers in plain clothes were at the Honduran border and
State Department officials were at the Guatemalan frontier when
Reuters visited both checkpoints this month.
The two U.S. Army rangers were observing the work of the Honduran
elite police unit assigned to the border, while Dubois said the
State Department officials were there to see how U.S. money was
being spent by his task force.
BORDER STILL POROUS
The number of unaccompanied children caught along the southwest U.S.
border almost halved in July from a month earlier to 5,508, or
around 177 a day, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security. The numbers still remain high versus previous years.
And while the Obama administration was quick to highlight that it
was closing some migrant detention facilities due to the fall,
Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson said several others have
been opened, and U.S. officials across Central America are wary of
declaring an end to the crisis.
Retired Tucson, Arizona border patrol chief Victor Manjarrez
attributed the fall in migration to people realizing that the
smugglers were spreading misinformation about how easy it would be
to stay in the United States. He said he had seen similar situations
on his watch in 1994 and 2003.
"And I'm sure next time the smugglers sense an opportunity, we'll
see another (surge)," Manjarrez said.
Mexico's southern border plan includes improving infrastructure at
rudimentary border crossings, encouraging the use of visitor permits
and beefing up the presence of police and the navy alongside customs
and immigration officials.
Yet stretches of the wild, tropical and largely uninhabited border
are as porous as ever.
Along the Suchiate River that marks the frontier between Guatemala
and Mexico, 22-year-old Wilmer Perez punts customers across on a
raft made from black inflatable inner tubes for less than $1 per
passenger.
The number of kids crossing the river is down sharply, at around 100
a day versus a daily peak of 500, Perez said.
"Before, there were just too many. Now, it's minimal, barely any
children are crossing," he said. "There are a lot of thieves who
kill people on the way, and then there's the Zetas (drug cartel).
God help them."
(Additional reporting by Joanna Zuckerman Bernstein and Michael
O'Boyle and Dave Graham in Mexico City, Patricia Zengerle, Caren
Bohan and Julia Edwards, Doina Chiacu and Roberta Rampton in
Washington, Sofia Menchu in Guatemala and Jim Forsyth in San
Antonio; Editing by Simon Gardner and Ross Colvin)
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