Some 1,427 people have died among 2,615 known cases of the
deadly virus in West Africa since the outbreak was first
identified in March, according to new figures released by the
WHO on Friday.
However the U.N. agency, which has faced criticism that it
moved too slowly to contain the outbreak, said that many cases
had probably gone unreported.
Independent experts raised similar concerns a month ago that
the contagion could be worse than reported because some
residents of affected areas are chasing away health workers and
shunning treatment.
Despite initial assertions by regional health officials that
the virus had been contained in its early stages, Ebola case
numbers and deaths have ballooned in recent months as the
outbreak has spread from its initial epicenter in Guinea.
"We think six to nine months is a reasonable estimate," Keiji
Fukuda, the WHO's Assistant Director-General for Health
Security, said during a visit to Liberia, speaking of the time
the agency now believes will be required to halt the epidemic.
An Ebola outbreak will be declared over in a country if two
incubation periods, or 42 days in total, have passed without any
confirmed case, a WHO spokesperson said.
INVISIBLE CASELOAD
Under-reporting of cases is a problem especially in Liberia
and Sierra Leone, currently the two countries hardest hit. The
WHO said it is now working with Medecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to
produce "more realistic estimates".
Nigeria, the fourth country affected, confirmed two new cases
on Friday, bringing the total number of recorded cases there to
14. The country's health minister said both patients caught the
disease from people who were primary contacts of the Liberian
man who first brought it to the economic capital Lagos.
The stigma surrounding Ebola poses a serious obstacle to
efforts to contain the virus, which causes regular outbreaks in
the forests of Central Africa but is striking for the first time
in the continent's western nations and their heavily populated
capitals.
"As Ebola has no cure, some believe infected loved ones will
be more comfortable dying at home," the WHO said in a statement
detailing why the outbreak had been underestimated.
"Others deny that a patient has Ebola and believe that care
in an isolation ward – viewed as an incubator of the disease –
will lead to infection and certain death."
Corpses are often buried without official notification. And
there are "shadow zones", rural areas where there are rumors of
cases and deaths that cannot be investigated because of
community resistance or lack of staff and transport.
In other cases health centers are being suddenly overwhelmed
with patients, suggesting there is an invisible caseload of
patients not on the radar of official surveillance systems.
