GENEVA/LAGOS (Reuters) - The Ebola epidemic
in West Africa could infect over 20,000 people and spread to more
countries, the U.N. health agency said on Thursday, warning that an
international effort costing almost half a billion dollars is needed to
overcome the outbreak.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a $490 million
strategic plan to contain the epidemic over the next nine months,
saying it was based on a projection that the virus could spread to
10 further countries beyond the four now affected - Guinea, Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Nigeria.
With the IMF warning of economic damage from the outbreak, Nigeria
reported that a doctor indirectly linked to the Liberian-American
who brought the disease to the country had died of Ebola in Port
Harcourt, Africa's largest energy hub.
In Britain, drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline said an experimental Ebola
vaccine is being fast-tracked into human studies and it plans to
produce up to 10,000 doses for emergency deployment if the results
are good.
So far 3,069 cases have been reported in the outbreak but the WHO
said the actual number could already be two to four times higher.
"This is not a West African issue or an African issue. This is a
global health security issue," WHO's Assistant Director-General Dr
Bruce Aylward told reporters in Geneva.
With a fatality rate of 52 percent, the death toll stood at 1,552 as
of Aug. 26. That is nearly as high as the total from all recorded
outbreaks since Ebola was discovered in what is now Democratic
Republic of Congo in 1976.
The figures do not include 13 deaths from a separate Ebola outbreak
announced at the weekend in Congo, which has been identified as a
different strain of the virus.
Aylward said tackling the epidemic would need thousands of local
staff and 750 international experts. "It is a big operation. We are
talking (about) well over 12,000 people operating over multiple
geographies and high-risk circumstances. It is an expensive
operation," he said.
The operation marks a major raising of the response by the WHO,
which had been accused by some aid agencies of reacting too slowly
to the outbreak.
Medical charity Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF) welcomed the WHO plan
but said the important thing was now to act upon it.
"Huge questions remain about who will implement the elements in the
plan," said MSF operations director Brice de le Vingne. "None of the
organizations in the most-affected countries ... currently have the
right set-up to respond on the scale necessary to make a serious
impact."
EXPERIMENTAL DRUGS
Early this month, the WHO classified the Ebola outbreak as an
international health emergency. Concerns that the disease could
spread beyond West Africa have led to the use of drugs still under
development for the treatment of a handful of cases.
Two American health workers, who contracted Ebola while treating
patients in Liberia, received an experimental therapy called ZMapp,
a cocktail of antibodies made by tiny California biotech Mapp
Biopharmaceutical. They recovered and were released from hospital
last week.
The virus has already killed an unprecedented number of health
workers and is still being spread in a many places, the WHO said.
About 40 percent of the cases have occurred within the past 21 days,
its statistics showed.
Previous Ebola outbreaks have mainly occurred in isolated areas of
Central Africa. However the current epidemic has spread to three
West African capitals and Lagos, Africa's biggest city. The WHO said
special attention would need to be given to stopping transmission in
capital cities and major ports.
"This epidemic is a challenge. Challenging to Liberia and
challenging to all of those who are friends and partners of
Liberia," President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said on Wednesday,
receiving a donation of ambulances from the Indian community.
"We can only return to our normal business ... if together we beat
this demon that is amongst us."
Authorities in Nigeria announced the doctor's death in Port
Harcourt, the main oil industry terminal of Africa's largest crude
exporter. The doctor had treated a patient who evaded quarantine
after coming into contact with Patrick Sawyer - a U.S. citizen who
died in Lagos after flying in from Liberia last month.
Health Ministry spokesman Dan Nwomeh wrote in his Twitter feed that
70 people were now under surveillance in Port Harcourt, which is
home to foreigners working for international oil companies.
A spokesman for leading operator Royal Dutch Shell said in London
that the firm was "liaising with health authorities on the steps
being taken to contain the disease".
Oil traders in Europe said insurance premiums for Nigerian cargoes
had gone up slightly, but otherwise business was continuing as
normal.
Analysts urged caution. "While major disruption to oil production
appears unlikely, any further spread of Ebola ... is likely to cause
serious operational challenges," said Roddy Barclay of the Control
Risks consultancy.
According to new figures released on Thursday, Nigeria has recorded
17 cases, including six deaths, from Ebola, since Sawyer collapsed
upon arrival at Lagos airport in late July.
While Nigeria has yet to suffer any major economic disruption, the
International Monetary Fund said the smaller, poorer nations at the
heart of the epidemic were being badly hurt. "The Ebola outbreak is
having an acute macroeconomic and social impact on three already
fragile countries in West Africa," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told
reporters in Washington.
Rice said the IMF was assessing the impact and any extra financing
needs with Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The Lagos case contributed to the decision by a number of airlines
to halt services to Ebola-affected countries. Air France said on
Wednesday it had suspended flights to Sierra Leone on the advice of
the French government.
Aylward said it was vital to restore commercial airline routes to
the region to help transport aid workers and supplies, but in the
meantime the WHO plan includes an "air bridge" to be operated by the
U.N.'s World Food Programme.
"We assume current airline limitations will stop within the next
couple of weeks. This is absolutely vital," he said. "Right now the
aid effort risks being choked off."
West African health ministers meeting in Ghana on Thursday echoed
the WHO's concerns and called for the reopening of borders and an
end to flight bans.
(Additional reporting by Kwasi Kpodo in Accra, Ben Hirschler and
Julia Payne in London, Anna Yukhananov in Washington and Sharon
Begley in New York; Writing by Joe Bavier and Daniel Flynn; Editing
by David Stamp)
