Oil sinks below $63 to over five-year low on supply glut, weak demand

[December 12, 2014]  By Simon Falush
 
 LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude oil slipped on Friday to below $63 a barrel, its lowest since July 2009, on persistent concerns over a global supply glut and weak demand outlook.

Brent is down around 9 percent this week, some 45 percent below its June peak above $115 per barrel.

Oil prices will likely come under further downward pressure, the International Energy Agency said as it cut its outlook for demand growth in 2015 and predicted that healthy non-OPEC output gains were poised to increase global supplies.

The agency, which coordinates the energy policies of industrialized countries, cut its outlook for global oil demand growth for 2015 by 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 900,000 bpd on expectations of lower fuel consumption in Russia and other oil-exporting countries.

"It spells out the main scenarios that are in the market and said that stockpiles will be substantially bigger in the first half of 2015," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst for SEB in Oslo.
 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which accounts for a third of world oil output, sees 2015 demand at the lowest in more than a decade.

"It's following the trend lower. The market has reacted strongly to the OPEC forecast cut, and it is focusing only on the negative," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam.

He added there was little technical support until $50-$55.

Brent was down 78 cents at $62.90 per barrel by 7:58 a.m. EST, having hit an intraday low of $62.75.

U.S. crude was down 79 cents at $59.16 a barrel, after falling to a low of $58.80, also the weakest since July 2009. The contract has lost about 10 percent this week.

Top energy consumer China released data on Friday showing near-record refinery runs in November, with factory output growth weaker than expected.

High Chinese oil demand, which has remained above 10 million bpd for the past three months, could help provide a price floor.

Remarks by Saudi Arabia's oil minister reiterating that the kingdom will not cut output, and a surprise jump in U.S. crude and distillate inventories, have driven down prices this week.

Analysts said there was scope for oil to slip further.

"We are getting quite close to excess supplies which could push prompt Brent (prices) down to incentivise traders to store increased volumes of crude on ships, as onshore storage fills up," Abhishek Deshpande, an analyst at Nataxis told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

He added oil could briefly fall as low as $40 per barrel.

(Additional reporting by Adam Rose in Beijing; Editing by Dale Hudson and David Evans)

[© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]

Copyright 2014 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.