 The bureau’s state population estimates for 2014 indicate Illinois lost nearly
10,000 (9,972) residents, or 0.08 percent of its population from July 1, 2013,
to July 1, 2014.
It appears this is the first time since 1980s that the combination of births and
inbound migration could not outstrip deaths and outbound migration.
The loss is small, analysts said, but the change itself is noteworthy because it
indicates Illinois moved from sputtering population growth to actual population
loss.
Illinois was one of six states losing population in the bureau’s 2014 estimates.
The others were West Virginia, Connecticut, New Mexico, Alaska and Vermont,
according to the report released Tuesday.
The last Illinois declines in the bureau’s tables for intercensal estimates –
those years between the 10-year censuses – occurred in the 1980s. The last of
those was a decline of 995 residents from July of 1987 to July of 1988.
The numbers amplify what Gallup pollsters said in April. Fifty percent of
Illinoisans said that if given the chance to move to a different state, they
would. Nearly 20 percent said they already planning to depart.
The economy
“This census data further confirms that Illinois needs to undergo a total
transformation in order to become pro-growth again,” said Mike Schrimpf,
spokesman for Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner. “We’ve been in a downward spiral for
years, and now is the time to reverse course.”
Rauner, a Republican businessman who rode to a November victory over incumbent
Gov. Pat Quinn largely on a pro-business platform, faces sizable challenges.
Illinois is traditionally a slow-growth state to start with, said Wendell Cox, a
demographics consultant based in Belleville.
Considering Illinois will never be a retirement winner when it comes to
population, “We have to take a step back and look at what drives migration,” Cox
said.
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 “We need to ask, ‘Why is it people move?’
“It’s economic opportunity,” he said. “It’s having jobs that people
aspire to take.”
Encouraging job creation is going to be a big task given Illinois
big fiscal problems, Cox said.
Among those problems is a $100 billion public pension deficit.
David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute,
agreed.
“Businesses dislike taxes, but they hate uncertainty,” he said.
“Illinois has been hit with a ‘perfect storm’ of sorts over the last
several years.”
Yepsen cited the state’s deficits and debts, slower recovery than
most from the Great Recession and a declining manufacturing base.
“Now that things are picking up in general, it can’t be
considered a surprise that many people in Illinois are packing up
and looking elsewhere,” he said.
Tarnished image
Yepsen said he also believes there is a cost to the image of
corruption that Illinois has managed to reinforce with two of its
last three governors – Rod Blagojevich and George Ryan – taking
federal falls for acts committed while in public office.
Businesses already understand Illinois has to generate more revenue
to cover its obligations, and they realize some of that will come
from them, Yepsen said.
The additional worry of, for instance, “Will I have to take care of
my alderman? can’t be a positive, Yepsen said.
Neither the state’s economic problems nor the stigma of corruption
can be cleared up overnight, but Illinoisans should wish the
incoming governor some success, he said.
“Let’s face it: Everyone who lives in Illinois has some stake in
this,” Yepsen said.
Illinois remained the country’s fifth most-populous state, according
to the bureau’s 2014 estimates, with roughly 12.88 million people.
Closing on Illinois’ is Pennsylvania, with 12.8 million people. It
gained an estimated 5,913 residents
National population increased by 2.4 million to 318.9 million, or
0.75 percent, according to the bureau’s estimates.
[This
article courtesy of
Watchdog.]
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