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 Moscow, which is trying to raise its diplomatic and economic
influence in the Middle East, has been a major provider of
conventional weapons to Syria, giving Assad crucial support during
the three-year civil war and blocking wider Western attempts to
punish him with sanctions for the use of force against civilians.
The new Russian supplies come at a critically fluid stage of the
conflict, with peace talks scheduled for next week in Switzerland,
the factious opposition losing ground, and Western support for the
rebellion growing increasingly wary of the role played by foreign
militants. Syria has even said some countries formally opposed to
Assad have begun discussing security cooperation with his
government.
Several sources told Reuters that Assad's forces had since December
received deliveries of weaponry and other military supplies,
including unmanned spy drones known as UAVs, which have been
arranged by Russia either directly or via proxies.
"Dozens of Antonov 124s (Russian transport planes) have been
bringing in armored vehicles, surveillance equipment, radars,
electronic warfare systems, spare parts for helicopters, and various
weapons including guided bombs for planes," a Middle East security
source said.
"Russian advisers and intelligence experts have been running
observation UAVs around the clock to help Syrian forces track rebel
positions, analyze their capabilities, and carry out precision
artillery and air force strikes against them," said the source, who
declined to be identified.
Vyacheslav Davidenko, spokesman for Russia's arms export monopoly
Rosoboronexport, said they could not comment on arms deliveries to
Syria.
Russia has said it violates no international laws with its military
supplies to Syria and does not sell Damascus offensive weapons.
Syrian officials could not be reached for comment.
LUCRATIVE CONTRACTS
A source within the international arms industry with knowledge of
Middle Eastern weapons movements also confirmed a pick-up in
supplies to Assad's forces, including UAVs.
"Equipment has been moving into Syria, and Russia is either bringing
it in themselves or sourcing supplies from Black Sea areas like
Bulgaria, Romania or Ukraine, where there is surplus stock floating
around," the source said. "Suppliers in that region cannot afford to
upset the Russians."
Arms trackers say Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine all have stockpiles
of Russian-styled light arms that were produced in the countries
dating back to the Soviet era, when factories were set up with help
from Moscow.
A Bulgarian foreign ministry spokesman said Bulgaria's
intergovernmental council, which oversees arms trades, had not
issued any certificates for arms deals destined for Syria.
"We have data that shows that Bulgaria has not authorized any arms
sales to Syria," he said.
Former foreign minister Solomon Passy said it was "very unlikely"
that Bulgaria, as a NATO and EU member, would be involved in such
shipments.
A Ukraine foreign ministry spokesman said the former Soviet republic
had already denied allegations of arms supplies and transfers last
year when it said Kiev had voluntarily and completely stopped
military and technical cooperation with Syria since May 2011.
Romanian officials did not immediately respond to requests for
comment.
The arms industry source said: "Stuff is definitely coming into
Syria, and Russia realizes they have to keep Assad in power if they
want to keep a hold of what they have there, especially with oil and
gas reserves up for grabs."
Russian oil and gas company Soyuzneftegas signed a $90 million deal
with Syria's oil ministry in December for oil exploration and
production in a 2,190 square kilometers (845 square miles) bloc of
Mediterranean waters off the Syrian coast between Tartous and
Banias.
Syrian oil officials say they are confident their waters hold
significant oil or gas reserves, pointing to substantial discoveries
in the eastern Mediterranean off Israel and Cyprus and promising
surveys carried out in the waters of Lebanon.
Moscow says its Middle East diplomacy is based on standing up for
the principles of international law and upholding the role of the
United Nations.
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The situation also offers Russia an opportunity to show it still has
weight on the world stage and to win potentially lucrative contracts
once the fighting is over in Syria and the dispute over Iran's
nuclear program ends. Russia is particularly keen to establish and
keep a foothold in the Middle East through Syria and Iran because it
lost out during the Arab Spring revolutions, particularly in Libya,
where it had backed Muammar Gaddafi.
Reuters last week revealed that Russia is negotiating with Iran an
oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month that threatens to
undermine sanctions that helped persuade Tehran to agree a
preliminary deal to curb its nuclear program.
NEED FOR SUPPLIES
Tom Wallace, of U.S. based non-profit conflict research group C4ADS,
said: "Assad absolutely needs to keep refreshing his supplies.
People's mind most obviously goes to bullets, but they underestimate
what an incredibly heavy logistical burden a modern mechanized
military really is.
"Tank treads, helicopter blades, jet fuel, ball-bearings, gyroscopes — virtually every component of every piece of equipment can and will
break down without maintenance and/or replacement."
James Bevan of Conflict Armament Research, who tracks weapons for
governments and other organizations, said Syria's munitions use had
been high for over two years.
"Further evidence of that is that they have been using barrel bombs
dropped out of helicopters, which may suggest that they are running
low on air-launched or air-delivered munitions," he said.
Britain has accused Syria's government of committing "yet another
war crime" by spraying civilian areas with barrel bombs — oil drums
or cylinders that are packed with explosives and metal fragments and
dropped from aircraft.
BY AIR AND SEA
A Syrian opposition source said some supplies had been delivered to
Syria's Latakia airport around three weeks ago, with further
equipment reaching through the country's major cargo ports in
Tartous and Latakia.
The source said the port of Tartous, which is also the location of
Russia's naval base, had been sealed off for several hours over
three to four weeks ago.
"During the time, non-authorized personnel were not allowed to
enter, and it is a sure sign a delivery came through. This happens
from time to time when supplies come in, usually at night."
The Middle East security source added: "Given the risk of rebel
attack on arms depots and landing strips at Syrian air bases, Russia
has also been shipping large amounts of small arms and munitions to
Tartous and Latakia, allowing Assad's forces to keep fighting
apace."
C4ADS's Wallace said past shipments of Russian military cargo had
also come by both air and sea.
"Lighter, less sturdy equipment often is loaded onto a plane,
whereas large and heavy shipments typically are loaded onto a ship
of some kind," he said.
"Wheeled vehicles would need to be transported on a roll-on,
roll-off ramped ship, but most smaller stuff could be containerized
and loaded onto a standard cargo ship," said Wallace, who
co-authored a recent report into arms transfers from Russia and
Ukraine. (PDF
link )
(Additional reporting by Timothy Heritage and Thomas Grove in
Moscow, Tsvetelia Tsolova in Sofia, Pavel Polityuk in Kiev, Radu
Marinas in Bucharest, and Dominic Evans in Beirut; editing by Will
Waterman)
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