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 But he is unlikely to mention the Keystone XL oil pipeline, a
politically charged project that could shape his legacy in each
area.
Some five years after Keystone XL was proposed, Canadian officials,
Republicans and some Democrats in conservative U.S. states are
expressing frustration over the lack of a decision by the White
House on the initiative.
The TransCanada Corp project involves construction of a 1,179-mile
(1,900-km) pipeline from Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska,
where it would connect with a previously approved line. That would
create a system that could move more than 800,000 barrels of crude
from Alberta's oil sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast each
day.
Supporters say Keystone XL would create thousands of jobs and cut
U.S. fuel costs by reducing the nation's reliance on oil imports
from nations that are less friendly than Canada. They also point to
U.S. government reports about the dangers of moving crude oil by
rail as an alternative to the pipeline.
Critics of the pipeline plan say it would harm the environment and
hasten climate change by promoting oil-harvesting methods in Alberta
that produce high levels of carbon dioxide emissions.
The project is in limbo while the U.S. State Department finalizes an
environmental review, a long-delayed process that has irked allies
in Ottawa and advocates on both sides of the issue in the United
States.
Behind the scenes, a complex political calculus is at play on
everything from the timing of the decision to the outcome.
For Obama, a decision in favor of the pipeline could undermine the
Democratic president's environmental credentials and anger activists
who have supported him just as his administration is writing new
rules to reduce heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions from power
plants.
A decision against the pipeline could undercut Obama's pledge to
boost employment and U.S. energy security while alienating an
important international ally and oil supplier.
No matter what Obama decides, an announcement before the midterm
congressional elections in November — which many observers expect — could make Keystone a big issue in the races that will determine
control of the U.S. Congress.
The Keystone project is a particularly sensitive subject for several
Democratic senators from politically divided states who support the
pipeline, are under pressure from Republican critics who back the
project, and are frustrated with what they see as the
administration's reluctance to decide the matter.
Democratic Senators Mark Begich of Alaska, Mary Landrieu of
Louisiana and Kay Hagan of North Carolina are prominent Keystone
backers and have supported past Republican-led efforts to circumvent
Obama on the decision.
A "PROGRESSIVE" LEGACY?
For Obama, the political calculus on Keystone extends well beyond
the issue of the pipeline itself.
As he enters his sixth year in office, Obama has become increasingly
focused on building his legacy as a "progressive" president.
The cornerstone of that legacy is Obama's healthcare overhaul, which
continues to face attacks from Republicans. But Obama also wants to
have an enduring impact on the nation's efforts to counter climate
change.
"The president doesn't have to run for election ever again;
increasingly he's going to be thinking about his legacy," said
Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club, an
environmental group.
"It's clear that one of the most important ways that he will be
judged is what actions has he taken on climate change."
Environmentalists and young people — key segments of the Democratic
Party's political base — have worked for years to block the Keystone
pipeline plan because of what they see as the project's potential to
increase climate-warming emissions.
Obama needs support from that base for other second-term initiatives
such as immigration reform, and a potential Democratic successor
such as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would need it to
gain traction in the 2016 election.
"The president wants to make sure his legacy on climate is solid," a
former administration official told Reuters.
"The degree to which this decision impacts the way he's viewed by
the progressive community, that's certainly something they need to
weigh."
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DECISION COMING "SOON"
So when will Obama make the call?
"You have to make a basic decision to answer that question, and that
is: How political will the timeline be?" said Jason Grumet, a former
energy adviser to Obama's 2008 campaign and now president of the
Bipartisan Policy Center.
A decision by summer would give the issue legs in the 2014
congressional campaigns. A decision after the November midterms
would thrust it into the beginning of the primary season for the
2016 presidential race.
Administration officials say the timeline is being determined by the
State Department, which has a say in the matter because the proposed
pipeline would cross the U.S.-Canada border. On January 17,
Secretary of State John Kerry said he hoped an analysis of the
thousands of public comments on the project's environmental impact
would be done "soon."
The American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry's top lobbying
group and a big Keystone backer, said it expects the State
Department's report to come out as early as Thursday.
"It's our expectation it will be released next week," the group's
chief executive, Jack Gerard, said last week during an interview,
citing sources within the administration.
"We're expecting to hear the same conclusion that we've heard four
times before: no significant impact on the environment," Gerard
said.
The report will be critical in determining how the Keystone process
plays out this year.
"If the analysis suggests that there are not substantial increases
in carbon emissions, then it's not a tough call. If the analysis
suggests that there are significant increases, it tilts the other
way," Grumet said.
Sources inside and outside the administration said they did not
expect Obama to discuss the project in his Tuesday speech.
"We have no expectation he'll find the courage to address it on
Tuesday. That doesn't mean we won't keep talking about it," said
Brendan Buck, spokesman for John Boehner, the Republican speaker of
the U.S. House of Representatives.
All 45 Republican U.S. senators urged Obama on Friday to end the
delays and noted in a letter that he had told them in March that a
decision would be made before the end of 2013.
"We are well into 2014 and you still have not made a decision," they
said.
A senior administration official said the president viewed the issue
as one that had become disproportionately symbolic and super-charged
for both sides. He does not believe it is the job creator that its
backers suggest or the environmental nemesis that its objectors
fear, the official said.
In June, while announcing a plan to cut U.S. carbon emissions, Obama
brought up the pipeline unexpectedly and used words that both sides
claimed backed up their arguments.
"Our national interest will be served only if this project does not
significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution," he said
then. "The net effects of the pipeline's impact on our climate will
be absolutely critical to determining whether this project is
allowed to go forward."
When Obama makes a decision on Keystone XL, Chief of Staff Denis
McDonough and Kerry are likely to be his top confidants. John
Podesta, a former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and a
Keystone critic who recently returned to the White House as a
counselor to Obama, has recused himself from the process.
(Editing by David Lindsey and Marguerita Choy)
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