NEW YORK (Reuters) - Boeing Co made its
most bullish 20-year forecast for jetliner demand since 2011, saying on
Thursday the world will need 36,770 new planes worth $5.2 trillion by
2033.
The company's annual projection is up 4.2 percent from its 2013
forecast, and it predicted beating rival Airbus Group NV in the
lucrative market for twin-aisle planes as the planes are built and
delivered over the next two decades.
"If Airbus doesn't do something with their product strategy, they're
headed to 30-35 percent market share" in deliveries of
next-generation twin-aisle aircraft, Randy Tinseth, Boeing's vice
president of marketing, told reporters in a briefing.
Boeing's 787 and 777X jets already make up 65 percent of all current
orders, with the Airbus A350 accounting for the rest, and that gap
will widen unless Airbus develops another jet as a competitor, he
said.
Planes are delivered years after orders are placed, so the final
numbers may change as airlines change their plans.
Airbus has disputed Boeing's numbers, saying it is already winning
most orders in twin-aisle aircraft when looking at recent years.
Airbus is considering embarking on development of such a jet, and
may launch the project at the Farnborough Airshow next week. The
jet, dubbed the A330neo, would be a revamped version of Airbus'
twin-aisle A330 jetliner with new efficient engines made by
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC.
SMALL WONDERS
Boeing's annual forecast, released in conjunction with the airshow,
said single-aisle airplanes such as the 737 and A320 will garner the
most orders, reflecting booming demand for air travel in Asia and
the growth of low-cost carriers there.
Last year Boeing predicted a 20-year need for 35,280 planes valued
at $4.8 trillion.
About 40 percent of single-aisle planes built in the next two
decades will go to low-cost carriers, and a large share of will be
in China, Tinseth said. He predicted China would overtake the United
States as the world's largest domestic air travel market in the next
20 years.
Twin-aisle planes also will attract strong demand. But Boeing
notched back its forecast for jumbo jets such as the Boeing 747 and
Airbus A380. It expects airlines to need about 620 of those over the
next 20 years, down from the 760 it forecast last year.
"That's the market that has really struggled to take hold," Tinseth
said.
Boeing expects airlines to buy 25,680 new single-aisle planes over
20 years, and that the global fleet will double to 42,180. About 58
percent of those planes will represent growth at airlines. The rest
will replace retired aircraft.
Boeing cut its forecast for air-cargo growth this year to 4.7
percent from 5 percent in 2013, but said the trend is stable and
will continue to support production of the 747-8 freighter and
freight versions of its popular 777 jet.
(Reporting by Alwyn Scott; Additional reporting by Tim Hepher in
London; Editing by Richard Chang)
