With time running short if a risky extension of the nuclear talks
is to be avoided, negotiators face huge challenges to bridge gaps in
positions over the future scope of Iran's nuclear program in less
than five weeks.
The talks, coordinated by European Union foreign policy chief
Catherine Ashton, stumbled during the last round in mid-May. Both
sides accused the other of lacking realism in their demands and
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the negotiations had
"hit a wall".
Although such rhetoric may in part be a negotiating tactic, it also
underlines how far the sides are from resolving a dispute that could
unleash war in the region. Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an
existential threat and has in the past suggested it could carry out
air strikes on its installations.
The powers want Iran to significantly scale back its uranium
enrichment program, denying it any capability to move quickly to
production of a nuclear bomb. Iran denies any such ambition and
demands that crippling economic sanctions, eased slightly in recent
months, be lifted entirely as part of any settlement.
The sides also must resolve other complex issues, including the
extent of U.N. nuclear watchdog monitoring of Iranian nuclear sites,
how long any agreement should run and the future of Iran's planned
Arak research reactor, a potential source of plutonium for atomic
bombs.
"We don't have illusions about how hard it will be to close those
gaps, though we do see ways to do so," a senior U.S. official said
on Monday, signaling the pace of diplomacy would intensify in the
days and weeks ahead.
However, sounding a cautiously hopeful note after a bilateral
U.S.-Iranian meeting in Geneva last week, the official said that "we
are engaged in a way that makes it possible to see how we could
reach an agreement". He did not elaborate.
In Tehran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said: "If the other
parties enter in negotiations with realistic views, the possibility
of a final agreement exists. But if they act irrationally, we will
act in accordance to our national rights."
Zarif, Ashton and the U.S. delegation, led by Under Secretary of
State Wendy Sherman and including Deputy U.S. Secretary of State
Bill Burns, held trilateral talks on Monday ahead of the start of
formal negotiations on Tuesday.
U.S. and Iranian diplomats also spoke about the rapidly
deteriorating security situation in Iraq on Monday. A State
Department official said any such talks would not touch on any
military coordination between the long-time adversaries.
Both Washington and Tehran are alarmed by the rapid advance in Iraq
of insurgents from the radical Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL), which is seeking to revive a mediaeval-style Islamic
caliphate across much of Iraq and neighbouring Syria.
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BRITAIN TO REOPEN TEHRAN EMBASSY
In a sign of warming relations between Iran and the West, Britain
announced plans on Tuesday to reopen its embassy in Iran with an
initially small presence 2 1/2 years after a mob ransacked its
Tehran legation. (Full Story)
Britain is one the of six powers negotiating with Iran, alongside
France, Germany, China, Russia and the United States.
Diplomatic sources have told Reuters that it is increasingly likely
Iran will seek an extension of the talks deadline. (Full Story) But
Western officials insisted the focus remained on sealing the deal by
late next month, noting that any extension must be agreed by all
sides and would likely be short.
"If there is an extension if will be for a few weeks," a diplomat
from one of the six powers told Reuters. If a deal were really
within reach the sides should not need six more months.
The seven states agreed on the July deadline to reach a
comprehensive agreement as part of an interim deal on the decade-old
nuclear stalemate in Geneva struck on Nov. 24.
That accord - under which Iran suspended some sensitive nuclear
activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief - allowed for a
six-month extension if necessary for a settlement.
It would allow up to half a year more for partial sanctions waivers
and restraints on Iranian nuclear activity as agreed in Geneva. To
avoid open conflict with a hawkish Congress, U.S. President Barack
Obama would want lawmakers' approval to extend.
An extension would have its perils. Analysts say both sides might
come under pressure from hardliners at home to toughen the terms
during this extra time period, further complicating the chances of a
successful outcome.
This week's talks are expected to last until Friday and resume some
time next month ahead of the July 20 deadline.
(Reporting by Justyna Pawlak; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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