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 The aim is to court one of the biggest and most reliable voting
blocs in midterm elections, senior citizens and people near
retirement, by depicting Republicans as defenders of the federal
healthcare program for 42 million seniors.
It's an attempt to turn the tables on Democrats, who in the 2012
presidential election attacked Republican Mitt Romney over
Republican proposals to overhaul Medicare.
"You'd have to be a blind man in a dark room not to see the
political implications of Obamacare in general and now specifically
with respect to Medicare," said Brock McCleary, former polling
director for the Republican National Committee.
The strategy faces an early test in Tuesday's special U.S. House
election in Florida, where analysts say Republican David Jolly and
his allies are using Medicare in an 11th-hour effort to create an
Obamacare liability for Democrat Alex Sink among older residents who
make up 45 percent of the local population.
Republicans and Democrats will sift through the election results in
search for effective political messages that can be replayed in
races including statewide contests in Arkansas, Louisiana and North
Carolina that could determine whether Republicans gain control of
the Senate.
In both the 2010 midterm elections and in the 2012 White House race,
Republicans sought to use Medicare as a campaign issue by linking it
to Obamacare, but this year Republicans believe they have more
ammunition because of the bumpy rollout of the health law that they
believe has soured voters on the initiative.
The Republican strategy is to tie Obamacare to controversial
proposals for two popular Medicare programs: Medicare Advantage,
which allows seniors to obtain healthcare benefits through private
insurance plans, and Medicare Part D, which covers prescription
drugs.
Some Democrats also have concerns about the administration's changes
to both programs. But Republican officials predict Democrats won't
be able to distance themselves from the proposals.
"They're tripping over themselves," said Andrea Bozek of the
National Republican Congressional Committee. "The public knows the
government is to blame and that the government is controlled by
Democrats."
The government has long paid more for Medicare Advantage than
traditional Medicare, as a way to encourage insurer participation.
That allowed Medicare Advantage to grow by offering lower charges
and richer benefits. It is expected to cover 29 percent of Medicare
beneficiaries this year.
But Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act requires the
government contribution to be near parity with traditional Medicare.
To that end, officials have proposed a 4 percent pay reduction for
insurers in 2015.
DARKENING SKIES
The final rate won't be set until April. But a new Florida TV ad
attacking Sink is already telling seniors what to expect: "To pay
for Obamacare, Washington is forcing seniors to endure deep cuts to
Medicare Advantage."
"Sadly, Alex Sink supports these cuts, sticking with Nancy Pelosi,
who wants to keep Obamacare intact," a narrator says as a washed-out
photo of Sink appears alongside images of the House Democratic
leader and the Capitol under darkening skies.
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Analysts say the 30-second ad, sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce,
is the first of the 2014 campaign to cite Medicare Advantage. It
began running last week. The conservative American Action Forum has
since unveiled Medicare Advantage ads targeting Senate Democrats
Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, as well as
House Democrat Nick Rahall of West Virginia, as part of its own $1
million Medicare campaign.
Republicans and conservative groups opposed to Obamacare have not
aired messages on proposed changes to Medicare Part D, which serves
36 million beneficiaries. But Republican Party officials say it is
only a matter of time.
Although Part D is less expensive than forecast, the government
hopes to limit its future costs by altering coverage for certain
drugs, changing pharmacy networks and limiting the number of Part D
plans available in any given area.
A coalition of groups has expressed concern that seniors could lose
coverage for drugs or wind up with fewer choices.
The proposals have nothing to do with Obamacare. But Republicans
hope to tie them to the law by reminding seniors about the millions
of insurance cancellations last year that undermined Obama's claim
that people could keep their plans.
"In past elections, the threats were hypothetical. Now, the
Affordable Care Act is providing more effective talking points for
Republicans because it's now law and the changes are being
implemented," said Andrea Campbell, an expert on seniors and
politics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Democrats counter that Obamacare is closing the infamous "doughnut
hole" in Medicare drug coverage that imposes big costs on seniors
while reducing current costs for millions.
Democratic Party officials also say a recurring Republican claim — that Obamacare cuts $716 billion from Medicare — will boomerang
against Republicans who voted for the same policy while approving
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan's plan to convert Medicare into what
critics called a voucher program.
"This is hypocrisy on the part of Republicans," said Justin Barasky
of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "All these ‘cuts'
happen under their plan, too."
Frank Orlando of the Polling Institute at Florida's Saint Leo
University, said Sink's candidacy could show Democrats have another
advantage from data indicating that most voters oppose the repeal of
Obamacare — a goal Republicans embrace.
(Reporting by David Morgan; editing by Caren Bohan and Ken Wills)
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