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 It appears to have worked. Going into Tuesday's Republican primary
in Kentucky, the Senate minority leader is ahead of his opponent,
Louisville-based businessman Matt Bevin, by a wide margin, according
to opinion polls.
But once victory is secured, McConnell will have to tack back toward
the political center ahead of a tight November contest against
Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes.
He will be on familiar ground. When McConnell sought re-election in
2008 he ran on a record of bringing jobs and federal largesse to his
home state of Kentucky, including some of the pork barrel spending
be has been arguing against, and was low key about the social
issues.
"I wonder if McConnell didn't run scared just a little too long,"
said Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University
of Kentucky. "He has worked hard to shore up his right flank, but
that may have left him exposed."
Although Kentucky tends to vote Republican in national elections,
many of the Republican voters in the state's eastern Appalachian
counties - which are among America's poorest - are not ideologically
conservative. They may be focused more on jobs creation than
spending cuts. And issues like abortion or illegal immigration do
not resonate much with independent voters and centrist Democrats in
a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans and the
unemployment rate is above the national average.
NOT TO BE UNDERESTIMATED
Opinion polls show Grimes, Kentucky's secretary of state, will be in
a very close race with McConnell.
But McConnell's long-term strategy to fend off what might have been
a tough challenge from the Tea Party - including raising vast sums
of money and building his own grassroots network to rival the Tea
Party's - shows he should not be underestimated
Bevin has raised $3.7 million, and national groups like the Senate
Conservatives Fund have spent around $1.7 million supporting him.
Backers of the Tea Party, from Kentucky and nearby states have gone
door to door, with the United Kentucky Tea Party putting 1,000
volunteers out on the streets.
"This is ground zero for the conservative movement," said Katherine
Hudgins of the 9.12 Project Tennessee, a volunteer who traveled to
southern Kentucky.
But however much the Tea Party, a movement advocating small
government and fiscal austerity, may have shaken up the Republican
Party, its record in primary contests is weak. To date, its sole
primary victory over a sitting U.S. senator was against Richard
Lugar of Indiana in 2012.
And McConnell undercut Bevin's challenge with a crucial endorsement
from Tea Party darling Rand Paul, the junior senator from Kentucky
who McConnell worked hard to get elected in 2010 after Paul won his
Republican primary (in which he beat McConnell's handpicked
candidate).
McConnell spent $9.2 million through April 30 but still had $10.1
million cash on hand. Beyond the typical TV spending, he has
invested stoutly in retail politics, mobilizing precinct captains in
most of the state's roughly 3,600 precincts.
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CLOSE RACE AGAINST GRIMES
McConnell will likely focus on economic issues as he faces off
against Grimes. Her "pocketbook issues" include raising the minimum
wage and equal pay for women, according to her campaign manager,
Jonathan Hurst.
McConnell expects to focus on his support for more coal-fired power
plants - Kentucky is a leading coal-producing state - a push for
repeal of Obamacare, and tax reform, campaign officials said.
According to government data since 1990, Kentucky has ranked in the
bottom 10 U.S. states in terms of per capita income. University of
Louisville political science professor Jasmine Farrier said that
Kentucky voters want a senator who will advance the interests of the
state, even more so given that Rand Paul appears to be gearing up
for a presidential run in 2016.
"With one senator in Paul whose mind is clearly elsewhere voters
here want someone who will be focused on working to further
Kentucky's economic interests," she said.
McConnell's part in the Congressional gridlock that has defined
Washington during President Barack Obama's time in office is viewed
very differently on the right and the left. It has not been unusual
to see one commercial in Kentucky from conservatives bashing
McConnell for caving to Obama on legislation, followed immediately
by one from the Democrats blaming McConnell for preventing anything
from getting done in Washington.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report says in a March report on
Kentucky that the November campaign could be "the closest race in
the country."
But McConnell, 72, has fought tough re-election races ever since he
was first elected to the Senate in 1984.
Grimes, meanwhile has had a boost from the last Democratic
presidential candidate to win Kentucky, Bill Clinton, who has
campaigned here for her.
Grimes, 35, had $4.9 million in cash at the end of April, of $8.1
million raised by then. She has been building her own network for a
"strong, solid field operation" that includes thousands of
volunteers statewide, said Hurst.
(Reporting By Nick Carey; Editing by Frances Kerry, Martin Howell)
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