|
 Reuters/Ipsos polling data shows Republicans are more certain they
will vote, and see their ballot as a way to voice disapproval of
Obama's handling of the Ebola outbreak and his health insurance
reform law.
The expectation of robust Republican turnout is why many forecasters
see strong odds that the party will take over the Senate and expand
its majority in the House of Representatives.
"It looks good for the Republicans," said Robert Erikson, a
political scientist at Columbia University. "The Democrats are at a
disadvantage when it comes to turnout."
About 55 percent of Republicans are certain they will vote, compared
with 47 percent of Democrats, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling
data for an online survey of 1,725 voters conducted Oct. 25-30. The
poll had a credibility interval of 4.2 percentage points for
Democrats and 4.8 points for Republicans.
While Republican turnout tends to be higher than Democrats', fewer
Americans identify as Republicans, which means contests are tightly
fought.
 Tuesday's elections play to Republican strengths. While most voters
are less interested in non-presidential contests, Republicans'
older, higher-income voters are more politically engaged.
Also helping to galvanize Republicans is their frustration over six
years of Democratic control of the White House. The president's
party has lost seats in Congress in nearly every midterm since 1934.
James Campbell, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo,
SUNY, said parties have bucked this trend only when their president
enjoyed high approval ratings, as with Bill Clinton in 1998 and
George W. Bush in 2002.
Obama's approval rating is just 38 percent, according to other
Reuters/Ipsos polling data, and he is a lightning rod for
Republicans.
"If there's a unifying theme here, it's a lack of confidence in the
administration's management," Campbell said.
Fifty-four percent of Republicans polled said Obama's handling of
Ebola would be very important for them when they vote, versus 40
percent of Democrats.
Some 63 percent of Republicans are similarly focused on Islamic
State, a militant group America is bombing in Iraq and Syria. That's
20 points higher than among Democrats, and a sizable spread also
holds regarding Obama's healthcare overhaul.
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Still, many political scientists don't see this year's threats and
policy debates as the main factor that will drive Republicans to the
polls.
"If these issues didn't exist, there would be something else," said
Chris Jackson, research director at Ipsos.
Democrats are doing all they can to boost turnout. In Georgia, where
Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue are battling for
a Senate seat that is being vacated by a retiring Republican, there
are signs that churches have boosted early voting by African
Americans, said Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of
Florida. These voters are overwhelmingly registered as Democrats and
are expected to support Nunn.
A voter's party and race can often be gleaned from early ballots. In
North Carolina, McDonald said, Democrats appear to be ahead, having
submitted 48 percent of ballots, compared with 32 percent by
Republicans.
McDonald said Republicans' early voting drive appears to be gaining
steam in Iowa, while the two parties looked to be neck and neck in
Colorado.
In the end, Democrats face an uphill battle.
"No matter what, we are going to see a bigger share of Republicans
show up," said Jackson.
(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Caren Bohan and
Douglas Royalty)
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