|
 Forecasters say that Republicans, who have made Obama's
unpopularity a top issue in the elections, are in a strong position
to capture the six seats they need to take over the Senate from
Democrats. They are also expected to expand their majority in the
House of Representatives.
But current and former White House aides say that even if those
predictions prove correct, Obama will likely resist calls to clean
house for the final two years of his administration, a departure
from the dramatic makeovers quickly ordered by many of his
predecessors after similar setbacks at the ballot box.
Even slow-motion staff turnover could add some new talent to an
inner circle that has been criticized as too insular. But it remains
to be seen whether new blood would be enough to help a diminished
president overcome Washington gridlock and push through new
initiatives to burnish his legacy.
At the same time, there are doubts whether Obama will respond with
what many see as an even more critical remedy: altering his
cloistered leadership style to deal with the new reality on Capitol
Hill and cascading crises abroad.
The president, known for his cautious “no-drama Obama” persona, may
be reluctant to make a fundamental course change for the last
quarter of his tenure, according to people inside and outside the
administration.
"There will always be a staff change here or there," particularly
among people who have served for a long time, said Jay Carney,
Obama’s former press secretary. But he added, “It's just not his
style to do it ... I wouldn't expect a big change.”
But both supporters and critics say recent stumbles in the handling
of the Ebola crisis and a halting strategy against Islamic State
underscore the need for major changes within the White House
"bubble," where policy decisions have become concentrated to a
degree seen as almost unprecedented.
"He should consider reviving the ‘team of rivals’ approach," said
Jane Harman, a former California congresswoman regularly consulted
by the White House. "Having people with different opinions in the
room, that would be very helpful."
LOYAL TO HIS LOYALISTS
However, Obama, famously loyal to those who have been loyal to him,
has shown an aversion to firing senior staffers. Most of those who
have left since he took office went voluntarily.
That may still be the case even as the predicted midterm losses sink
in with his West Wing team, many of whom are exhausted after nearly
six years of governing.
But there is another, albeit less likely, scenario. With lame-duck
status looming, Obama – his approval ratings languishing in the low
40-percent range - may calculate that he has little to lose by
making sweeping staff changes, which could send a message that he is
serious about making a fresh start, one former insider said.
White House chief of staff Denis McDonough has already quietly asked
senior aides to tell him if they plan to stay onboard for Obama’s
final two years in office.
A longtime Obama confidant, McDonough himself is the object of
growing speculation. His departure would suggest Obama is doing more
than just tinkering with the makeup of his staff.
McDonough has made clear he prefers to stay and Obama won’t send him
packing, people close to the president say. But no one is ruling out
that McDonough could decide on his own to leave.
There has been speculation that Ron Klain, recently named as Obama’s
Ebola “czar,” might be in line to succeed McDonough. But Klain, who
has a long history within the administration, would not represent
any real change from the president’s preference for promoting
trusted insiders.
Obama may be mindful that the last time he revamped his White House
staff, after the “shellacking” suffered in the 2010 midterms, the
results were far from glowing. Former banker Bill Daley, brought in
for a more pro-business approach but never able to penetrate the
Obama inner circle, was pushed out as chief of staff after little
more than a year.
Among other top operatives mentioned for possible departure are
senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer and deputy national security adviser Ben
Rhodes. Both have been at Obama's side since the 2008 campaign. They
have played key roles in White House “messaging,” increasingly seen
as a weakness for his presidency.
One former administration official said Pfeiffer planned to leave
sometime after the president’s State of the Union address early next
year.
[to top of second column] |
Also on the list are White House counselor John Podesta and
communications director Jennifer Palmieri, former members of Bill
Clinton’s administration who might be poached for Hillary Clinton’s
campaign if she decides to run for president in 2016.
Speculation aside, current and former aides see little reason to
expect an overhaul like the one by George W. Bush after his
Republican party’s thumping in the 2006 midterms. Just hours after
the results were in, Bush dismissed Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld over the handling of the Iraq war. SLOW-ROLLING EXODUS BY
ATTRITION?
What some people close to Obama now expect is a slow-rolling exodus,
mostly by attrition, that could stretch out for months but avoids
explicitly casting blame for policy troubles on anyone who heads for
exits.
A more immediate barometer of Obama’s interest in an infusion of new
thinking may be his choice of a successor to Attorney General Eric
Holder. An outsider, Loretta Lynch, the head federal prosecutor in
Brooklyn, is emerging as a leading candidate, according to people
familiar with the matter.
A more far-reaching question is whether Obama will try to reinvent
himself. Bill Clinton responded to midterm losses in 1994 not only
by shaking up his team but by becoming a master of “triangulation,”
embracing legislative compromises that often split the difference
between traditional Democratic and Republican ideologies. In his
second term, he led a war in Kosovo and deepened China trade ties.
But unlike Clinton, who relished the schmoozing part of politics,
the more aloof, professorial Obama has shown little interest in
personal outreach to lawmakers, even his own party.
Obama’s former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, in a newly published
book, criticized the president’s "frustrating reticence to engage
his opponents."
The received wisdom in Washington is that the midterm results will
only ratchet up pressure on Obama to change his ways in order to
push his agenda.
But Tommy Vietor, a former National Security Council spokesman who
served as a longtime Obama aide, said he did not see the president
turning to a style of "backrooms and back-slapping politicians
cutting deals over a glass of bourbon."
He said that while Obama would look for ways to work with
Republicans, he would remain wary of those who have routinely
blocked him because "they just don’t want to give him a win."
Dennis Ross, Obama’s former top Middle East adviser, sees it
differently. He said the president would have little choice but to
engage lawmakers if his administration negotiates a legacy-shaping
nuclear deal with Iran and needs congressional approval to remove
sanctions.
“He will need to invest some time with them," Ross said.
Obama might also find common ground on a trans-Pacific trade deal
and funding to combat Islamic State if Republicans want to show they
can get things done in Congress. But on immigration and climate
change, he is expected to resort to executive action.
Harman, now head of the Wilson Center in Washington, also called on
Obama and his White House to reach out to members of the new
Congress. "Am I confident they will? No," she said. "But Nov. 5 is a
very a very good time to reset a number of things."
(Additional reporting by Warren Strobel, Jeff Mason and Richard
Cowan, editing by Ross Colvin)
[© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2014 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
