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 Concern about the strength of the U.S. economy, coupled with
worries about Ebola and Islamic State militants, are driving the
dour mood of a restive electorate. Democrats could pay the price
when voters elect 36 senators, all 435 members of the House of
Representatives and 36 state governors.
Obama's name is not on the ballot, but his low job approval rating
reflects a lack of confidence in his leadership during the sixth
year of his presidency. Polls indicate Democrats have less
enthusiasm for voting than Republicans, and history shows the party
that is in power in the White House in midterm elections usually
loses seats.
"There doesn't seem to be a lot of things for people to feel good
about," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy
Institute at Southern Illinois University. "It may not be fair, but
they tend to take those kinds of feelings out on the White House,
and as a practical matter I think the Senate goes Republican."
In the House of Representatives, Republicans are expected to build
on their majority of 233 seats to 199 for Democrats. They also will
likely retain their majority in the number of governors' seats they
hold in state capitals.
But the heavy campaign action has been in the 100-member Senate,
where Republicans need to pick up six seats to reclaim the majority
from Democrats and control both chambers of Congress for the first
time since the 2006 election. While Republicans are expected to gain
seats, as many as eight to 10 Senate races are still considered
toss-ups that could go either way.
There is a good chance the party that controls the Senate will not
be known on Tuesday night. Senate races with multiple candidates in
Louisiana and Georgia, where the winner must get more than 50
percent of the vote, could be forced into runoffs in December or
January, respectively.
If Republicans do take control of the Senate, Obama's last two years
in office would be complicated by the prospect of even more partisan
gridlock, although it could force him to make more compromises with
his political opponents.
A Republican-led Senate would be likely to push ahead with approval
of the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline, chip away at provisions in
Obama's signature healthcare law, and take steps toward a broad
rewrite of tax laws.
According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll in late October, just 38 percent
of Americans approve of Obama's handling of his job as president,
compared to 56 percent who disapprove. Meanwhile, just 24 percent
think the country is headed in the right direction, and 61 percent
believe it is on the wrong track.
About 58 percent of Republicans are dead certain they will vote,
compared to 44 percent of Democrats, the Ipsos poll shows.
POLITICALLY RADIOACTIVE
Obama's unpopularity has made him politically radioactive on the
campaign trail. Democratic candidates have kept him at arm's length
in competitive states where Senate control will be determined.
Instead, he has largely been restricted to Democratic fund-raising
events, although in recent days he headlined events in friendly
states such as Maine, Rhode Island and Michigan. On Sunday, he
travels to Connecticut and Pennsylvania.
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"I'm not on the ballot this time and this is the last election cycle
in which I'm involved as president," said Obama, who was elected to
the U.S. Senate in 2004, and to the White House in 2008 and 2012.
"Look, it makes you a little wistful, because I do like campaigning.
It’s fun," he said in Portland, Maine, on Thursday night.
Although the White House publicly predicts Democrats will hold on to
the Senate majority, people who have visited the West Wing recently
say a grim mood has settled in.
But Democrats said the number of close races still gives them a shot
to hold the Senate, particularly if their vaunted, data-driven voter
turnout operation tips some key races in their favor.
"The Republicans have done a good job of making the president and
his agenda the issue. The only way Democrats are gong to win in the
end is if they remind voters that all politics are local," said
Democratic strategist Jim Manley.
The Republican drive to a Senate majority is focused on defeating
Democratic incumbents in what polls show are tight races in
Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, New Hampshire and
Colorado, and winning a fierce battle for the open Iowa seat of
retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.
Democrats are trying to make the task harder for Republicans by
beating Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky - he
has a small but consistent lead in recent polls - and winning the
Georgia Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Saxby
Chambliss.
Republicans who began the year campaigning against the rocky rollout
of Obama's healthcare law have ended it by emphasizing what they
call Obama's failed leadership.
"The president wanted to frame this election around this battle
about which party was better positioned to represent middle-class
voters," said Republican strategist Kevin Madden. "What's happened
instead is we've seen the country lurch from crisis to crisis and as
a result the public’s confidence in the president and Washington as
an institution has eroded."
(Additional reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti; Editing by John
Whitesides and Frances Kerry)
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