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 Exports have been the lone bright spot in the last few months,
perhaps helping to offset soft domestic demand, but there are doubts
about the accuracy of the official numbers amid signs of a
resurgence of speculative currency flows through inflated trade
receipts.
Exports rose 11.6 percent in October from a year earlier, slowing
from a 15.3 percent jump in September, the General Administration of
Customs said. The figure was slightly above market expectations in a
Reuters poll of a 10.6 percent rise.
A decline in China's leading index on exports in October pointed to
weaker export growth in the next two to three months, the
administration said.
"The economy still faces relatively big downward pressure as exports
face uncertainties while weak imports indicate sluggish domestic
demand," said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai.
"The central bank may continue to ease policy in a targeted way."
Imports rose an annual 4.6 percent in October, pulling back from a 7
percent rise in September, and were weaker than expected. That left
the country with a trade surplus of $45.4 billion for the month,
which was near record highs.
Annual growth slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter - the
weakest since the height of the global financial crisis - as a
cooling property sector weighs on domestic demand.
Recent purchasing managers' surveys on factory and services showed
the economy lost further momentum heading into the fourth quarter as
the property market weighed and export demand softened, putting
Beijing's official growth target for the year at even greater risk.
SUSPICIOUS TRADE DEALS
September's surprisingly strong export growth led some analysts to
question the accuracy of the official data amid signs of hot money
inflows as firms tried to evade capital controls by over-invoicing
precious metal sales.
The latest trade data indicated a cooldown in such speculative
activity amid fears of an official crackdown.
"It's impossible to control hot money flows. Hot money may distort
trade data but it won't affect the trend," said Li Huiyong, an
economist at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.
Customs data showed China's exports of precious metals and jewellery
rose 187 percent in October from a year earlier. The pace eased from
a 678 percent jump in September.
China's exports to Hong Kong, where over-invoicing is typically most
pronounced, rose 24 percent in October from a year earlier, slowing
from September's 34 percent increase.
Exports to the United States, China's top export destination, rose
10.9 percent in October from a year earlier, largely matching
September's rise, while exports to the European Union, the
second-biggest market, grew 4.1 percent, slowing sharply from a 14.9
percent jump in September.
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ON TRACK TO MISS TRADE TARGET
China's external trade environment may slightly improve in 2015 but
still faced uncertainties, the Ministry of Commerce said in a report
published on Saturday.
"It's difficult for external demand to show a significant rebound,"
the ministry said.
China's combined exports and imports rose 3.8 percent in the first
ten months from a year earlier, the administration said. That
suggests China will miss its trade growth target for a third
consecutive year.
The government missed its targets of 8 percent in 2013 and 10
percent in 2012 and aims for 7.5 percent growth this year.
A deluge of China data over the coming week, including factory
output and investment, is likely to show a persistent cooling in the
economy, reinforcing views that authorities may need to do more to
fight slackening growth.
China's reform-minded leaders have refrained from acting forcefully,
such as by cutting interest rates. That has caused concerns among
some analysts that the modest policy measures may not be enough to
prevent a sharper slowdown.
A Reuters poll published last month forecast the economy could grow
an annual 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter, leaving the full-year
pace at 7.4 percent - the weakest in 24 years.
China's cabinet unveiled detailed measures on Thursday to support
imports of high-tech equipment, resource products and consumer
goods, in its latest efforts to support the economy and rebalance
trade.
That followed recent government steps to offer cheaper loans, tax
breaks and currency hedging tools to exporters.
The government has unveiled a burst of "targeted" policy stimulus
since April, including cutting reserve requirements for some banks,
hastening construction of railways and public housing and allowing
local governments to loosen property curbs.
China's central bank pledged on Thursday to maintain modest policy
support to help the economy weather increasing headwinds in the near
term but stressed that it would not flood markets with cash.
(Editing by Nick Macfie)
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