|
 Since September, Russia's state-controlled Gazprom has sent
less-than-requested deliveries to Poland, Slovakia, Austria and
Hungary - after the European Union began sending gas to Ukraine - in
a clear warning from Moscow ahead of the winter heating season which
officially starts on October 1, when the industry switches to higher
pricing.
"Nobody should be surprised by what Russia does. They want to keep
pressure on Ukraine... at the start of the heating season," said
Michael LaBelle, a gas expert at the Central European University in
Budapest.
Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, meeting almost a
third of annual demand and in return, Gazprom receives around $80
billion in annual revenues from its European customers, making up
the majority of its income.
Moscow halted gas flows to Ukraine three times in the past decade,
in 2006, 2009 and since June this year, although this year gas for
the EU via Ukraine has so far continued to flow.
Opening up gas flows eastward was part of the EU's response to
Gazprom's decision to cut supplies to Kiev in June. Slovakia, Poland
and Hungary can also send gas to Ukraine but so far deliveries have
not been without incident.
Poland temporarily stopped deliveries to Ukraine last month after
Warsaw said it was getting less gas from Russia than requested.
Hungary stopped eastward supplies last week in order to fill its own
storage tanks ahead of winter.
Slovakia, with the largest EU-capacity to Ukraine, had maintained
deliveries but saw its own gas imports from Russia fall below
requested amounts in September.
While analysts have not seen the situation so far as the start of a
"gas war," they agree it is a warning to Europe that Russia is ready
to retaliate should Brussels impose further sanctions on Moscow over
its intervention in Ukraine.
"It (the Russian export reductions) could actually be in the end
quite harmless. But the fact that they did not tell anyone in
advance, (shows) that nobody should trust any explanation he or she
gets, and that in itself is damning," Czech energy security
ambassador Vaclav Bartuska told the Reuters this week.
He added it would be foolish to expect gas to flow as usual through
Ukraine this winter.
DEAL?
Traders have, however, pointed out that Russia's recent reductions
to Europe were within contractual allowances and came during times
that EU gas storage tanks are well filled.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data show that the EU's gas storage sites
are filled to an average of over 90 percent, compared to just 68
percent this time last year.
[to top of second column] |
"Most of the EU has its gas tanks filled to the rims, so they don't
need more gas at the moment, while Gazprom needs to still fill its
domestic reserves ahead of the Russian winter, so I'm not surprised
by its flow reductions to the EU, which were all within contractual
allowances," one EU utility trader said.
While gas deliveries to Germany, Gazprom's biggest customer, should
continue through the Nord Stream pipeline which bypasses Ukraine,
the outlook is far less certain for central and southeastern
European nations which receive most or all of their imports from
Russia and via Ukraine.
To deal with a potential shortfall this winter, the European Union
has prepared emergency plans and has also sought a compromise to
safeguard winter supplies in a potential deal that would guarantee
Kiev at least 5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas for the next six
months if Ukraine made pre-payments. Russia's energy minister said
on Tuesday he hoped to reach a deal in a gas dispute with Ukraine
this week, although he added that Kiev must pay some of its large
debts before Moscow resumes gas supplies.
Yet even if a deal is reached, analysts say flows to the EU could
get disrupted this winter as Ukraine did not have enough time to
fill its gas reserves ahead of the cold winter months.
"There is every chance that there will be interruptions especially
if the Ukrainians don't manage to get more gas into storage
because," said Peter Hughes of German consultancy Global Gas
Partners on the sidelines of the 2014 Platts European Gas Summit.
In the end, however, analysts said that all sides involved would
lose if gas stopped flowing this winter.
"All parties will be losers. They don't have anything to gain out of
the situation," said Stephane Bertoncini of Chappuis Halder & Cie in
Paris.
(Writing by Henning Gloystein and Michael Kahn; Editing by William
Hardy)
[© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2014 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
