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 Any talks between the two leaders on the sidelines of an
Asia-Pacific leaders gathering in Beijing in November would likely
be well-choreographed, but without the trappings of a formal summit,
a Japanese diplomatic source said.
A one-on-one meeting would nonetheless be a symbolic breakthrough in
ties between the world's second and third-biggest economies, which
have turned frigid in the past two years over a territorial row,
regional rivalry and the bitter legacy of Japan's wartime occupation
of China.
With a month to go, Beijing is seeking assurances that Abe will not
repeat a visit to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine for war dead - seen by
China as a symbol of Japan's past militarism - any time soon,
experts and Japanese lawmakers said.
A public promise not to pay his respects at Yasukuni again would be
impossible for Abe, whose conservative agenda includes recasting
Japan's wartime history in a less apologetic tone.
But Koichi Hagiuda, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aide to
Abe, said the prime minister could put off a visit if he judged that
was in Japan's national interests.
"He (Abe) has not promised to go to Yasukuni every year, but
ordinary Japanese think that he would go once a year. However, if
this creates a situation that would hurt national interests, it is
possible he could make a comprehensive decision and put it off for a
while," Hagiuda told Reuters.
He declined to say how long "a while" was, stressing that the
decision was up to Abe himself.
Abe has been stepping up his calls for a meeting with Xi and told a
parliamentary panel on Wednesday: "I think China also is becoming
more positive about improving Sino-Japanese relations."
Just the evening before, Abe spoke briefly with Li Xiaolin, the
daughter of former Chinese president Li Xiannian and said to be
close to Xi, at a dance performance in Tokyo.
The theme of the performance was the crested ibis, a symbol of
Sino-Japanese friendship.
Abe made his first overseas trip as prime minister in 2006 to China
and did not pay his respects at Yasukuni during his brief, one-year
term - a decision he later said he regretted.
But Abe has not met Xi one-on-one since taking office again in
December 2012. A visit to Yasukuni last December outraged Beijing
and even prompted Japan's security ally, the United States, to
express disappointment.
Hagiuda said that Abe was highly unlikely to pay his respects in
person at this year's autumn festival, which begins on Oct. 17. Abe
could opt to send a ritual offering as he has done before, other
lawmakers said.
DIPLOMATIC DANCE
Conservative Japanese politicians typically visit Yasukuni at the
shrine's spring and autumn festivals and the Aug. 15 anniversary of
Japan's defeat in World War Two. Abe last visited on Dec. 26, 2013,
exactly one year after he assumed office.
Japanese lawmakers who recently visited Beijing said China, as the
Asia-Pacific summit host, seemed worried about being viewed as
churlish in terms of diplomatic etiquette if Xi refused to meet Abe
but was keen for a sign that Abe would not visit Yasukuni any time
soon.
"They want some...sign that Japan has compromised a bit or else
there is a problem in terms of 'face'," LDP Deputy Secretary-General
Norio Mitsuya told Reuters.
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Liu Jiangyong, an expert in China-Japan ties at Tsunghua University
in Beijing, said it was hard to predict whether Xi and Abe would
meet bilaterally, but added that if they did, the Chinese leadership
would certainly ask him not to go to Yasukuni again. "But if he
does make the visit again, that's tantamount to telling Chinese
leaders that the meeting has been fruitless," Liu said.
China also wants Japan to acknowledge the existence of a formal
territorial dispute over tiny islands in the East China Sea
controlled by Japan but also claimed by Beijing, Japanese lawmaker
Mitsuya said.
Japanese diplomatic experts ruled out such a move but said it was
possible that the two sides could find a diplomatic formula to
"agree to disagree" over the uninhabited islands, known as the
Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.
Certainly, signs of a thaw have been mounting.
A slowing Chinese economy and a sharp drop in Japanese investment
are key factors prompting Beijing to rethink its relations with
Tokyo, experts said. Japanese firms' investment in China fell 40
percent on an annual basis in the first half of 2014 after sliding
by nearly one-fifth last year.
Reduced tensions would also benefit Japanese firms doing business in
China and a chat with Xi would be a feather in Abe's diplomatic cap
- he has traveled to 49 countries since taking office, but been
unable to meet Chinese or South Korean leaders.
The foreign ministers of China and Japan have met twice since August
and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang told a 200-strong delegation of
Japanese business executives in late September that he was keen to
revive high-level economic talks with Japan.
The two sides also agreed "in principle" to resume stalled
discussions on a mechanism to avoid an unintended clash, fears of
which had risen as Chinese and Japanese ships and planes play cat
and mouse near disputed isles in the East China Sea.
An agreement by the leaders to proceed with setting up such a crisis
management mechanism might well be the most concrete outcome of any
meeting between Abe and Xi.
"That is the maximum we can expect at this point," said Kunihiko
Miyake, a former diplomat now at the Canon Institute for Global
Studies in Tokyo. "It is extremely important to send the right
signal to business circles in Japan and China."
(Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo and Megha Rajagopalan
in Beijing; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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