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 "If we can reduce the number of people who are passing on their
infection to others by about 70 percent, then the outbreak will come
to an end," Dr. David Nabarro, the senior U.N. coordinator for the
international response to Ebola, told Reuters.
"If, on the other hand, people continue to be able to transmit the
virus to others when they have been ill, then the outbreak will
continue and continue growing at the rate it is."
Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone have been hardest hit by the
disease, and cases have been reported in Senegal and Nigeria. On
Wednesday, the World Health Organization said Ebola had claimed the
lives of 3,879 people from among 8,033 confirmed, probable and
suspected cases since it was identified in Guinea in March.
Nabarro praised the United States, Britain, the African Union and
others for marshalling healthcare workers and military personnel to
build and staff treatment centers in affected areas. He urged all
countries to contribute whatever they could to the effort.
He also lauded the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda for
providing skilled doctors and nurses.
"They've had the experience of dealing with Ebola inside their own
countries and that is invaluable," he said. An outbreak of Ebola
believed to be separate from the one in West Africa has been
reported in Democratic Republic of Congo.
Healthcare systems in affected West African countries do not have
the capacity to deal with the epidemic. Treatment centers are full
and healthcare workers are at risk of infection.
Ebola can take as long as three weeks before its victims show
symptoms, at which point it becomes contagious. Ebola, which can
cause fever, vomiting and diarrhea, spreads through contact with
bodily fluids such as blood or saliva.
Nabarro, who was the U.N. coordinator for the international response
to avian and human influenza outbreaks, said the scale of the Ebola
outbreak was doubling every three to four weeks.
"So good quality care in an isolated space that enables people to
have a good chance of recovery is the key requirement," he said. "To
do that, we need to have people who are skilled in providing care."
BATTLE WILL BE WON
The United Nations last month established its first-ever mission
designed specifically to combat a public health crisis, the
Ghana-based U.N. Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER).
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"We're certainly going to see this battle won," Nabarro said. "The
question is when ... and can we minimize the number of people who
will lose their lives, or the damage to the economies of the
affected countries while this happens.
"I'm sure that it will be a relatively short time before we start to
see what I call the bending of the epidemic curve so that it starts
to come down again," he said.
Nabarro said he was saddened by the death of the first person
diagnosed with Ebola in the United States, Liberian national Thomas
Eric Duncan, who flew to Dallas in late September after having
contact with a woman who was infected and later died.
He said Duncan's case highlighted the danger of Ebola, classified as
a level 4 biological hazard and one of the deadliest illnesses for
which no vaccine or proper treatment exist.
"Even where you've got a very high-quality healthcare system,
sometimes it's not possible to save people," Nabarro said.
The U.S. government on Wednesday ordered extra screening of
passengers arriving at five major U.S. airports from West Africa.
Nabarro said he supports the idea of screening passengers to
identify high-risk individuals who might have contracted the virus,
but he said travel bans or isolating affected countries would be the
wrong approach.
He said if countries are well prepared and well organized they can
deal with outbreaks, as Nigeria has, that may occur as a result of
individuals crossing their borders.
(Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Additional reporting by Angela
Moore; Editing by Toni Reinhold)
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