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 Youths celebrated the routing of al Shabaab from Barawe by playing
street soccer for the first time in six years, one of many
activities banned by the austere Islamists alongside chewing the
stimulant khat and watching satellite television.
But the shadow of al Shabaab, even after its weekend defeat at the
hands of African peacekeepers and Somali troops, still looms over
residents, all too aware of the group's ability to melt away and
return with devastating guerrilla-style raids.
"Al Shabaab threatened us the day they abandoned the town," said
Halima Osman, refusing to sell her drinks to government troops
marching into town. "If you buy my tea, al Shabaab fighters will
behead me or kill me immediately you leave."
Barawe, a conduit for arms and a source of revenues from charcoal
smuggling, was al Shabaab's last major coastal stronghold. Its loss
on Sunday was the latest in a string of defeats in al Shabaab's
heartland in south and central Somalia.
It adds to the challenge facing a group whose charismatic and
ruthless leader, Ahmed Godane, was killed in a U.S. missile strike
in September. His successor, Ahmad Umar, whose rise is attributed to
his loyalty to Godane rather than his own power base, must
consolidate his rule as al Shabaab fighters retreat.
But the group, which swept to power in Somalia in 2006, stayed a
potent force after it was driven from Mogadishu in 2011 and the
latest setbacks are unlikely to halt its campaign that has included
attacking the presidential compound, assassinating officials and
ambushing the Western-backed African Union force.
Western nations and Somalia's African neighbors worry that as long
as al Shabaab can still control even smaller centers or tracts of
countryside, it will threaten Somalia's gradual recovery from two
decades of war.
They fear it could still use the territory to promote its "jihad"
well beyond Somalia's borders.
REGIONAL REACH
"Al Shabaab is weakened after Godane's death and Barawe capture,"
said Abdikadir Mohamed Sidii, governor of the Lower Shabelle region
south of the capital, speaking in Barawe.
But he said it still had a large force of well-equipped and
experienced fighters, using vehicles mounted with anti-aircraft guns
and other arms. "There is thick bush in these areas and al Shabaab
plans to fight guerrilla warfare here," he said.
Suicide car bombers and fighters ready to die as they charge into
government buildings with guns blazing have kept residents of
Mogadishu on edge. Abroad, al Shabaab proved its regional reach with
last year's attack on a Nairobi shopping mall that left at least 67
dead and other fatal raids in Kenya since then.
“Al Shabaab is a very resilient organization. It has repeatedly
restructured itself, coped with changes in leadership," said one
diplomat. "So it would be a mistake to underestimate al Shabaab."
As well as striking Mogadishu, al Shabaab - which means "the Youths"
- has cut supply lines to towns that were retaken in this year's
offensive by the Western-financed African Union's AMISOM troops and
the Somali army, which is slowly being turned from a rag-tag group
of militias into a national force.
But modern equipment and foreign funds are not always a match.
"Tanks are not made for fighting groups of five guerrillas in the
bush," said Hussein Nur, a university lecturer in governance and
leadership in Mogadishu.
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Some centers became "ghost towns" after being recaptured as rebels
stopped aid convoys reaching them, forcing residents to flee in
search of food. That undermined the government's promise of a better
life under its rule. "Hungry Somalis may join al Shabaab if AMISOM
and the government do not urgently help them," said Major Clement
Cimana, spokesman for Burundi's AMISOM contingent, noting the
challenge of supplying towns via ruined and dangerous roads.
"It will take much time to reconcile al Shabaab to reach peace," he
said. "(The) military may not be the only solution."
"CRUSADERS AND APOSTATES"
Seizing on al Shabaab's setbacks, the government issued a 45-day
amnesty in early September for members of the group after Godane was
killed, urging fighters to hand themselves in and aiming at drawing
in mid- to high-ranking officials.
So far, diplomats say there has been little take up, beyond a few
low-ranking members, suggesting it may take more than battlefield
defeat to shake the religious convictions behind a group which wants
to impose its strict version of Islamic law.
Al Shabaab, with its characteristic defiance, said "the claim by the
crusaders and apostates" that it had been weakened would soon be
proved wrong, just as it was wrongly counted out when it lost
Mogadishu and the southern port of Kismayu.
"The current claims are no different to the previous (ones). Time
will prove them again to be baseless, with the disbelievers waging a
losing war," Abdiasis Abu Musab, the spokesman for al Shabaab's
military operations, told Reuters by email.
Yet, although recent military victories have yet to trigger major al
Shabaab defections, it may be slowly whittling away at morale. The
new leader Umar cannot boast Godane's battlefield experience nor his
appeal that came from Godane's mastery of Somali poetry and
reputation as an Islamic scholar.
"There is a possibility that some mid-level people might decide to
jump ship as they run out of space,” said Abdi Aynte, director of
director of the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies in Mogadishu.
"I remain convinced that in the longer run he would struggle to keep
the organization cohesive."
(Additional reporting by Abdi Sheikh in Mogadishu; Writing by Edmund
Blair; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
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