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 William LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh co-wrote "Back Channel
to Cuba," which was officially released on Monday and explains
the informal and secretive "back channel" means that Havana and
Washington have used to speak to each other despite their
hostilities.
Based largely on declassified documents, the book created a stir
with its revelation that former U.S. Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger ordered contingency plans for a military strike in
order to "smash Castro" in response to former President Fidel
Castro sending Cuban troops to Angola in 1975.
The authors are in Havana for a dual presentation of their work
and a similar book by Cuban authors Elier Ramirez and Esteban
Morales, also released on Monday, that is based on previously
unreleased Cuban documents.
LeoGrande is a professor of government at American University
and Kornbluh is director of the Cuba Documentation Project at
the non-governmental National Security Archive.
They say Obama will have the stage to lift bilateral relations
out of the shadows next April in Panama at the Summit of the
Americas. As host country, Panama has verbally invited Cuba,
which would participate for the first time.
Obama might meet Cuban President Raul Castro there in what could
potentially be more substantive than their handshake during a
brief encounter at Nelson Mandela's funeral last December.
"In the coming months this is the opportunity for diplomacy,
culminating in the opportunity for Obama to fulfill a campaign
promise he made in 2008," Kornbluh said, referring to Obama's
stated willingness to meet with leaders of U.S. adversaries such
as Iran and Cuba.
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LeoGrande said a number of conditions are uncommonly favorable.
Obama is in his second term and final term. The presumed Democratic
front-runner for the 2016 nomination, former Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, has already advocated a change in Cuba policy, so
he would not damage her politically.
Most importantly, he said, polls show a majority of Cuban-Americans
in South Florida now favor a change.
"I am reasonably optimistic," LeoGrande said. "Obama's been saying
ever since he was a candidate that the policy doesn't make sense and
needs to change. And Raul Castro has been saying he wants to see a
policy change. ... A lot of things that have prevented change in the
United States are old issues."
A New York Times editorial on Sunday added to the voices urging
Obama to alter a Cold War-era policy and move toward restoring
diplomatic ties and ending the comprehensive trade embargo imposed
on Cuba. Conservatives oppose change, criticizing Cuba's continued
one-party political system and repression of dissidents.
Cuba, meanwhile, has little expectation of U.S. change.
"The philosophy of punishing Cuba remains in effect," Josefina
Vidal, chief of the Cuban foreign ministry's U.S. division, told
reporters in Havana last week.
(Reporting by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Richard Chang)
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