|
 Developed by a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that
includes Toyota Corp as a shareholder, the $42-million regional jet,
with just under 100 seats, is Japan's second bid to break into the
commercial aircraft market.
"This has been a long-held dream of ours, and one that all of Japan
has waited for," Hideaki Omiya, chairman of Mitsubishi Heavy, said
at a factory in Nagoya in central Japan, which was also the site of
the roll-out, 75 years ago, of the prototype of the World War
Two-era Zero fighter plane.
The ceremony, attended by about 500 people, kicks off a sprint to
complete flight tests before the first delivery of the aircraft in
June 2017 to ANA Holdings Inc.
That target is three years later than initially planned.
Japan failed in its last attempt to break into the commercial
aircraft market in the 1960s, with a 64-seat turboprop dubbed the
YS-11. Only 182 planes, built by a consortium that included
Mitsubishi Heavy, were ever made.
Mitsubishi has so far won 191 firm orders from customers including
U.S. regional groups Trans States Holdings and SkyWest Inc, and
Japan Airlines Co Ltd.
Analysts say the figure is less than the several hundred planes it
needs to sell to break even and far behind the orders it needs to
overtake the market leader, Brazil's Embraer SA.
That goal presents a "significant challenge," Rob Morris, head of
consultancy at aviation market specialist Ascend, said before
Saturday's ceremony.
The MRJ's biggest selling point, Mitsubishi says, is its ability to
burn a fifth less fuel than aircraft of similar size, thanks to
new-generation engines from Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United
Technologies Corp.
"With the rollout we are moving from a concept on paper to actual
testing of real aircraft," the MRJ's chief engineer, Nobuo Kishi,
said in Nagoya, when asked what was the biggest challenge facing the
development team.
The current development budget of around $1.8 billion does not
account for the costs of delays so far, Kishi added.
CHALLENGING NUMBERS
Mitsubishi, which is also challenging Canada's Bombardier Inc,
estimates demand for 5,000 regional jets over the next 20 years, of
which it aims to capture a half. Ascend puts its prospects closer to
a fifth and forecasts a market for 4,071 jets worth $128.3 billion
by 2033.
Embraer will supply 2,489 of those and Mitsubishi 913, with
Bombardier and newcomers from Russia and China making up the rest,
according to the Ascend Flightglobal Fleet Forecast.
[to top of second column] |
Mitsubishi's problem is Embraer's headstart of more than 1,000
aircraft orders, along with an established reputation for financing,
reliability and after-sales service, said Richard Aboulafia, vice
president of analysis at consultancy Teal Group.
After the MRJ came into the picture, Embraer said it would upgrade
its E-Jets with the same fuel-efficient Pratt & Whitney engines
under the name E2. These will be delivered from 2018 only a year
after the delayed MRJ.
"The E-Jet E2 will produce economics every bit as competitive as the
MRJ, despite the lack of clean-sheet design," said Morris.
Mitsubishi has a better chance of displacing Bombardier, which has
bet big on developing its CSeries to break into the market for
150-seat aircraft at the expense of its CRJ regional jets, said
Aboulafia.
INDUSTRY AID
The MRJ's biggest success could be helping Japanese industry win
component deals because it will prove to Boeing Co and Airbus Group
NV that Japan is capable of taking on more work. Doing so could help
make up for less work building military aircraft.
Skills acquired on the YS-11 program helped Mitsubishi Heavy and
other companies forge ties with Boeing, a major comeback step for an
industry dismantled during the U.S. occupation after World War Two.
They have a major work-share on the U.S. plane maker's 777 and 767
aircraft and build 35 percent of the carbon composite 787
Dreamliner. That work employs 22,000 people or two-fifths of Japan's
aerospace engineers.
A government official overseeing Japan's aerospace business who
spoke to Reuters likened the MRJ project to a 1,000-year-old Shinto
renewal rite at the Ise Grand Shrine in central Japan near
Mitsubishi's MRJ plant. Shrine buildings are razed and rebuilt every
20 years to pass on traditional building skills.
"A regional jet won't be nearly as important, in terms of profits
and technology development, as Japan's hugely important role as an
aerostructures provider, particularly to Boeing, " said Aboulafia.
(With addditional reporting by Siva Govindasamy)
[© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2014 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |
