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 The three countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, do all check
departing air passengers for fever, although the test cannot spot
sufferers in the period before they show symptoms, which can be up
to 21 days.
The researchers, whose work was published in The Lancet medical
journal on Tuesday, said exit screening was nevertheless one of the
most effective ways of limiting Ebola's spread.
Using modeling based on 2014 global flight schedules and 2013
passenger itineraries, as well as current epidemic conditions and
flight restrictions, the analysis showed that, on average, just
under three (2.8) Ebola-infected travelers are projected to travel
on an international flight every month.
Dr Kamran Khan of St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, who led
the research, said the study showed it was far more effective and
less disruptive to screen travelers from the affected countries in
West Africa as they leave, rather than when they land, as the United
States, Britain, France and some other countries have begun to do.
"While screening travelers arriving at airports outside of West
Africa may offer a sense of security, this would have at best
marginal benefits, and could draw valuable resources away from more
effective public health interventions," Khan said.
Ebola is known to have killed more than 4,500 people in Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Guinea. But with at least half the cases going
unreported and a 70 percent fatality rate, by World Health
Organization (WHO) estimates, the true toll in what is by far the
worst outbreak on record is probably more than 12,000.
Cases of the hemorrhagic fever have already been imported into
Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States, and WHO officials
have said it is "unavoidable" that Ebola cases will be seen in more
countries.
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Many medical experts have argued that the best place to prevent the
spread of Ebola is at its source.
Khan said excessive constraints on air travel could have "severe
economic consequences that could destabilize the region and possibly
disrupt critical supplies of essential health and humanitarian
services".
The study found that, of the almost 500,000 travelers who flew on
commercial flights out of Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown
international airports in 2013, more than half were destined for one
of five countries: Ghana (17.5 percent), Senegal (14.4 percent),
Britain (8.7 percent), France (7.1 percent) or Gambia (6.8 percent).
It also found that more than 60 percent of travelers in 2014 were
likely to be heading for poor or middle-income countries, where the
medical and public health resources to prevent a wider outbreak are
likely to be more limited.
(Reporting by Kate Kelland; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
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