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Euro zone inflation slightly higher in October

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[October 31, 2014] By Robert-Jan Bartunek

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Inflation in the 18 countries sharing the euro edged up slightly in October, a first estimate by the European Union's statistics office showed on Friday, giving some hope to policy makers that price deflation can be avoided.

Eurostat said consumer prices in the euro zone rose by 0.4 percent in October, in line with market expectations, the day after inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed in October to 0.7 percent, its lowest reading since May.

The euro <=EUR> initially strengthened against the dollar and the pound following the release of the data but quickly gave up these gains and remained below the levels seen at the start of the trading session.

"There was some speculation leading up to the release that inflation might have been stable, mainly because of the German inflation numbers yesterday, but it rose nevertheless," Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN AMRO, said.

The European statistics office said prices rose fastest for services, 1.2 percent, followed by the 0.5 percent increase for food, alcohol and tobacco.

Unprocessed food prices fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in October while energy was 1.8 percent cheaper, a slowdown in the rate of decline from September when prices for these goods dropped 0.9 and 2.3 percent respectively.

Excluding unprocessed food and energy, prices rose 0.8 percent in October, a stable rate from September. This number is referred to as core inflation by the European Central Bank.

The ECB, which has a mandate to keep inflation below but close to 2 percent, has committed to an expansionary policy, including an asset-buying plan, and said it was considering further measures if needed.

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The better-than-forecast economic sentiment figures out on Thursday, which also hinted at higher inflation expectations by consumers and producers alike, may give the central bank an incentive for holding off with further policy action before the end of the year.

"Looking forward, we think that inflation is likely to remain at very low levels in the coming months. It could be that over the next six months inflation is half a percent or below. Even though it might rise later in 2015 it is likely to remain far, far below the ECB's price stability goal," Kounis said.

Eurostat data also showed on Friday that unemployment in the euro zone remained unchanged at 11.5 percent in September.

(additional reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; editing by Adrian Croft)

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