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 We're about to get our first look at NASCAR's new Chase format,
which features three elimination rounds and a one-race dash for the
title in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Sixteen drivers are eligible for the championship in the expanded
Chase, 13 by winning races and three because of their positions in
the standings.
But in that field of 16, who are the top contenders for the title,
and who will simply be fortunate to survive and advance through
increasingly rigorous elimination rounds?
Here's my take on the 16 championship hopefuls:
THE TOP SIX
1. Brad Keselowski -- With a series-best four victories this season,
Keselowski is the top seed in the Chase for good reason. Last year's
post-championship swoon brought the driver of the No. 2 Team Penske
Ford back down to earth. He and his entire team have been working
like demons this year to regain their form, and they've succeeded.
Two of Keselowski's victories this year have come on 1.5-mile
speedways (Las Vegas and Kentucky), and there are five such tracks
in the Chase. Kez also won at Loudon, host site for the second Chase
race. The team has a test scheduled at Martinsville, where
Keselowski has never won, to shore up the effort for the final
three-race elimination round.
2. Jeff Gordon -- With three wins in the bank, Gordon is having his
most enjoyable season in Sprint Cup racing since his last
championship year, in 2001. His No. 24 Chevrolets have been
consistently fast, as he showed in Saturday night's Federated Auto
Parts 400 at Richmond, where Gordon was runner-up for the second
time this year. The only thing that gives us pause is Gordon's
uneven performance at Chase tracks where the series already has run
this season. The four-time champion won at Kansas, and finished
second, fifth and seventh at Texas, Phoenix and Charlotte,
respectively. But Gordon ran 26th at Loudon, 15th at Dover, 12th at
Martinsville and 39th at Talladega, which hosts an elimination race.
That's a bullet he'll have to dodge.
3. Joey Logano -- Like Keselowski, Logano has been consistently fast
this year as he grows into the talent fellow drivers have been
touting since his teens. Logano has collected three of his six
career wins this year, and the Chase schedule plays to his strength.
If Logano survives the first two elimination rounds, and there's
every expectation he will, he comes to tracks where he has excelled
this season. Logano finished fourth at Martinsville, first at Texas
and fourth at Phoenix in the first races at those tracks this year.
Sounds like that trio of tracks could punch his ticket to the final
race.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- In relative terms, Earnhardt has been
stress-free since winning the Daytona 500, but that's about to
change. Enjoying his best season since his six-win effort in 2004,
Earnhardt and crew chief Steve Letarte have set an enviable standard
of consistency this season (a 10.3 average finish through 26 races),
and that may be enough to carry them through the first two rounds of
the Chase. To win the title, however, Earnhardt will have to get
past Texas, where he made his worst mistake of the season and
finished 43rd. He'll likely have to add a fourth win to his total,
too.
5. Kevin Harvick -- There's no doubt Harvick has had one of the
fastest cars in the series at a wide variety of tracks. With perfect
execution, he could have won eight races this year, rather than the
two he did win. Pit road has been an issue for the No. 4
Stewart-Haas Racing team. So has bad luck, some of it
self-inflicted. Harvick has one of the best minds in the garage in
crew chief Rodney Childers, but if the team can't iron out the
glitches during the Chase, Harvick won't win his first championship,
no matter how fast his cars happen to be.
6. Jimmie Johnson -- The six-time champion gets the nod here simply
because he's a six-time champion, and Johnson and crew chief Chad
Knaus perform at peak level on the Chase tracks. But in the last
couple of months, Six-Time hasn't been looking much like a potential
Seven-Time. The No. 48 Chevrolet hasn't been as fast as the Hendrick
team cars of Gordon or Earnhardt, or as fast as the Fords of
Keselowski and Logano, for that matter, but it's never safe to write
Johnson off when the Chase rolls around. He's the only driver to
have qualified for every Chase, and he's the only driver to have won
it more than twice.
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THE BOTTOM 10
7. Matt Kenseth -- The 2003 Cup champion hasn't won a race this season,
and unless his luck changes radically, he won't win a second title. The
Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas simply don't have the power under the hood to
match the Fords of Penske or the Chevys of Hendrick and affiliates.
8. Kurt Busch -- The winner of the inaugural Chase (2004) made the
playoff on the strength of his win at Martinsville, but Busch's season
has been riddled with inconsistency. This is no knock against crew chief
Daniel Knost, but when you're up against combinations like Brad
Keselowski/Paul Wolfe and Jimmie Johnson/Chad Knaus, it's hard to win a
title with a rookie on the pit box.
9. Carl Edwards -- The driver of the No. 99 Ford has two wins this year,
but his lame-duck status and the lame-duck status of crew chief Jimmy
Fennig don't bode well for a championship run. Besides, the Roush Fenway
Fords haven't found the speed that has propelled the Penske Fords to the
front of the field.
10. Kyle Busch -- See the notes on Kenseth. And remember, as long as
Kansas is a Chase track, Busch will have trouble advancing past the
second round.
11. Ryan Newman -- The driver of the No. 31 Chevy hasn't won a race in
his first season with Richard Childress Racing, but he has been
consistent enough to survive a round or two in the Chase without getting
to Victory Lane. If the team continues to improve, Newman could be a
factor.
12. Kasey Kahne -- On the strength of his banzai run at Atlanta, Kahne
secured his Chase spot, but can he and crew chief Kenny Francis mount a
consistent enough effort to contend for the title? The team tested at
Chicagoland and should get off to a strong start.
13. Greg Biffle -- Those who think "limping in" is just a poker term
didn't see Biffle's performance at Richmond, where he managed to secure
the last Chase spot by seven points over Clint Bowyer with a car than
handled like a dump truck. Richmond notwithstanding, the Roush Fenway
cars have been more consistent of late, just not consistently fast
enough to win a championship.
14. Denny Hamlin -- See the notes on Kenseth and Kyle Busch. The
straight-line speed simply isn't there. About the fastest things in the
JGR camp right now are the mechanisms in the air guns.
15. AJ Allmendinger -- Unfortunately, from Allmendinger's standpoint,
there aren't any road courses in the Chase. Given that Dover is his best
oval track, however, Allmendinger could survive the first elimination
round.
16. Aric Almirola -- The driver of the No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports
Ford has but two top fives this season -- not a good omen for the
Chase--but he does have an average finish of 10.3 on the three 1.5-mile
speedways that get a return visit in the Chase (Kansas, Charlotte and
Texas).
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