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 President Barack Obama this week unveiled a rough plan to fight
the Islamist militants simultaneously in Iraq and Syria, thrusting
the United States directly into two different wars in which nearly
every country in the region has a stake.
The broad concept of a coalition has been accepted in Western
capitals and on Thursday 10 Arab states, including rivals Saudi
Arabia and Qatar, signed up to a "co-ordinated military campaign".
"I'm comfortable that this will be a broad-based coalition with Arab
nations, European nations, the United States, others," U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry said in Ankara on Friday.
But he added it was "premature" to set out what tasks individual
coalition partners would shoulder. And the devil could be in the
details.
"This coalition has to be efficient and targeted," said a senior
French diplomat. "We have to keep our autonomy. We don't want to be
the United States' subcontractor. For the moment they haven't made
their intentions clear to us."
The United States and Britain pulled out of striking Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad last year hours before French planes had
been due to take off, leaving President Francois Hollande
embarrassed and isolated.
This time around Paris wants clear commitment and international
legality for any action in Syria. In Iraq, it wants a political plan
encompassing all sides of society to be in place for the period
after Islamic State (IS) is weakened.
"The coalition must be the most legal possible," said former French
Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine. "It needs members of the Security
Council and as many Arab countries as possible and there has to be a
follow-up. Otherwise it will all start again in three months. There
needs to be a long-term vision."
That is the idea of a conference in Paris on Sept. 15 that will
bring Iraqi authorities together with 15-20 international players.
The talks come ahead of a U.N. Security Council ministerial meeting
on Sept. 19 and a heads of state meeting at the U.N. General
Assembly at the end of the month.
"The goal is to coordinate aid, support and action for the unity of
Iraq and against this terrorist group," Hollande, the first Western
leader to travel to Iraq since Islamic State's advances in June,
told reporters in Baghdad on Friday.
France has so far sent weapons to Kurdish fighters in Iraq and
humanitarian aid. It is likely to send about 250 special forces
troops to help direct strikes for Rafale fighter jets.
But what it can offer is limited. France's forces are stretched,
with more than 5,000 troops in Mali and Central African Republic.
Its planned 450 million euros overseas defense budget for 2014 is
already over a billion euros, at a time when the government is under
severe pressure to cut spending.
BRITAIN KEEN - TO A DEGREE
Britain, Washington's main ally in 2003, has sent mixed messages. It
has stressed the West should not go over the heads of regional
powers or neglect the importance of forming an inclusive government
in Iraq.
Like France, it is also cautious about action in Syria because of
legal questions and Syrian government air defenses.
In Iraq, it has delivered humanitarian aid, carried out
surveillance, given weapons to Kurds and promised training.
On military action, Britain supports U.S. air strikes and Prime
Minister David Cameron has repeatedly said Britain itself has ruled
nothing out except combat troops on the ground.
"We need to keep working closely and talking, thinking about the
strategy. It shouldn’t be presented too much as ‘here is the plan,
these are the roles, who wants what’," said a British government
official. With an election less than nine months away, the British government
is well aware of public opposition to Britain's role in invading
Iraq with the United States in 2003.
Cameron is also scarred by the memory of an embarrassing
parliamentary defeat last summer, when he recalled MPs during the
summer recess only to fail to win their approval to leave open the
possibility of military action against Syria.
Members of the government have said they would again try to seek
authorization from parliament for involvement in any strikes, unless
it became necessary to act quickly due to a humanitarian emergency
or a threat to Britain.
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"As the global resolve to tackle (IS) strengthens, we will consider
carefully what role the United Kingdom should play in the
international coalition," Foreign Office Minister David Lidington
said on Friday.
"The basic fact is that no decisions about UK military action have
been taken or are being asked of us at the moment."
Most other European countries appear unwilling to go beyond
humanitarian and logistical aid. Germany and the Czech Republic
have promised to help arm the Kurds. But Berlin has been adamant it
will not take part in air strikes.
NATO is ready to facilitate and coordinate airlift supplies, and
could offer training to Iraqi forces.
"We have to try to support and sustain the local protagonists who
may be able to stop and contain Islamic State in those areas,"
Italian Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti said.
"The Americans have chosen to carry out air strikes. We haven't yet
chosen that," she said.
ARABS AND TURKS ON BOARD?
The U.S.-led coalition will want active military support from Middle
Eastern states, to at least avoid the appearance of waging a Western
"crusade".
In the campaign to bring down former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi
in 2011, the United Arab Emirates contributed to air strikes, while
Qatar provided weapons to rebels.
But in Iraq, the stakes for regional players are higher. Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt are unlikely to want to take a key
role in military operations.
"The situation is critical on our border because (Islamic State) are
close. Yes, Saudi Arabia is ready to help, but America must first
show it is with us now," said a Saudi Arabian military officer in
Paris last week.
Turkey, a NATO member which shares long borders with both Syria and
Iraq, has so far also conspicuously avoided committing itself to the
new military campaign.
U.S. officials have played down hopes of persuading Ankara to take a
combat role, focusing more on Turkey's efforts to stem the flow of
foreign fighters crossing its territory and the provision of
humanitarian aid.
From the early days of the Syrian conflict, Turkey has backed mainly
Sunni rebels fighting Assad. Although it is alarmed by Islamic
State's rise, it is wary about any military action that might weaken
Assad's foes.
It is also nervous about strengthening Kurds in Iraq and Syria.
Turkey's own Kurdish militants waged a three-decade insurgency
against the Turkish state and are engaged in a delicate peace
process.
Pro-government newspapers on Friday welcomed Ankara's reluctance to
take a frontline role in the coalition, questioning whether U.S.-led
military action was the answer and drawing parallels with 2003, when
Turkey's parliament rejected a U.S. request to use Turkish territory
to invade Iraq.
"In a coalition, you are not expected to do the same things. Some
can provide humanitarian help, others financial and others military
support," said another French diplomat. "The importance is that
everything is coherent."
(Additional reporting by Adrian Croft in Brussels, Kylie MacLellan
in London and Jazon Szep in Ankara; Editing by Andrew Roche and Tom
Heneghan)
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