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 The global development lender predicted that slow containment of the
deadly virus in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone could lead to
broader regional contagion, particularly through tourism and trade.
Under the worst-case scenario, Guinea's economic growth could be
reduced by 2.3 percentage points next year while Sierra Leone's
growth would be cut by 8.9 percentage points. Liberia would be
hardest hit, with a reduction of 11.7 percentage points next year.
"We really need to scale up our response and what we have learned
from this study is that time is of the essence," World Bank
President Jim Yong Kim told reporters.
Even under the best-case scenario, countries would need a "massive"
scaling up of their response to contain the disease in the next four
to six months, the bank said.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said the outbreak requires a $1
billion expenditure to limit its spread. "The ($1 billion) is
something we need right now, and it could go up rapidly if we do not
respond," Kim said.
The United States announced on Tuesday it would send 3,000 troops to
help tackle the Ebola outbreak.
The bank itself has pledged about $200 million in emergency
assistance to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three countries
most affected.
HARDEST-HIT ECONOMIES
The World Bank predicted the three West African countries so far
affected by the virus would lose $359 million in economic output
this year. All three also have significant funding gaps, totaling
nearly $300 million.
Inflation and food prices were also starting to rise due to
shortages, panic buying and speculation, the bank said.
Failure to contain the virus quickly could also affect business in
neighboring countries, including Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal.
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"The analysis finds that the largest economic effects of the crisis
are not as a result of the direct costs ... but rather those
resulting from aversion behavior driven by fear of contagion," the
bank said in a statement.
The worst Ebola outbreak since the disease was identified in 1976
has already killed nearly 2,500 people, half of the number infected
by the virus.
The bank said agreeing on a standardized Ebola treatment and
prevention protocol, endorsed by the WHO, was critical and would
significantly reduce the virus's death rate, now at 53 percent.
The outbreak of the highly contagious virus, which causes fever and
uncontrolled bleeding, was first confirmed in the remote forests of
southeastern Guinea in March.
(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov; Additional reporting by Stella
Dawson, Thomson Reuters Foundation; Editing by Andrea Ricci and
Jeffrey Benkoe)
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