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The university's Tropical Meteorology Project
calls for seven named storms this year, with three reaching
hurricane status, including one major hurricane with winds
upward of 111 miles-per-hour (178 kph), CSU researchers estimate
in their annual report.
In an average year, the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of
Mexico see 12 named tropical storms, six hurricanes and two
major hurricanes during the six-month season, which runs from
June 1 to Nov. 30, the report said.
The CSU team bases its estimates on 60 years of compiled data
from Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure,
vertical wind shear levels, and an El Nino event in the tropical
Pacific Ocean, the university said in a statement accompanying
the report.
The El Nino phenomenon is the warming of tropical waters in the
central and eastern Pacific, which affects global weather
patterns, including winds. El Nino makes the formation of
hurricanes in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin less likely.
The report's lead author, Phil Klotzbach, said the combination
of all those factors point to a well below average year for
hurricane activity.
"Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these
conditions," Klotzbach said.
The CSU report also placed the odds of a major hurricane making
landfall along the entire U.S. coastline at 28 percent, down
from the historical average of 52 percent.
Klotzbach said the report is an estimate, and cautioned
residents in coastal regions to always prepare for severe
storms.
"It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an
active season," he said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
U.S. government's top climate agency, will issue its hurricane
forecast next month, a spokesman said.
The CSU team will issue three updates to its forecasts in June,
July and August.
(Reporting by Keith Coffman; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Sandra
Maler)
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