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 The issue is a backdrop for almost any global economic affairs
debate in Washington, with many Democrats and their backers arguing
that free-trade deals help big corporations, but drive American jobs
abroad to cheaper labor markets.
On Thursday, the debate rose to a full boil when members of Congress
from both parties announced legislation that would give President
Barack Obama the "fast-track" trade negotiating authority he needs
to complete a massive Asia-Pacific free-trade deal.
Over two days of campaigning in Iowa this week, where she discussed
economics, Clinton, who is the commanding front-runner to be the
Democratic nominee for the 2016 election, uttered not a word about
the potential Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between the United
States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries.
If Obama does not get fast-track "trade promotion authority" (TPA)
from Congress setting rules for debating TPP, it will be nearly
impossible to complete the sprawling pact that aims to lower trade
barriers and further stimulate trade with countries ranging from
Australia, Japan and Chile to Singapore and Vietnam.
 The TPA fight in Congress could be over this year, long before the
election campaigns really heat up. But if Congress approves
fast-track, the second chapter - an up-or-down vote by Congress on
whatever TPP deal Obama agrees to - could be raging as the November
2016 election nears.
"She puts herself in a very difficult position no matter what she
says" about trade, said Paul Sracic, who heads Youngstown State
University's Politics and International Relations Department in Ohio
and focuses on global trade.
That is because Clinton, who has spent decades in the national
limelight including as secretary of state from 2009-2013, could face
attacks from many angles, especially in swing states like Ohio that
could decide who wins the White House.
If Clinton were to align herself with the labor unions - a position
that would also put her in the same camp as conservative Tea Party
Republicans - that are already trying to defeat TPA and TPP, she
could win points in Ohio, Nevada and other states rich in organized
labor votes.
But at the same time, she would be distancing herself from some of
the work she did when she was a top official in the Obama
administration at the exact time Obama, her ex-boss, is traveling
the country selling the free-trade deal.
"One of her primary accomplishments as secretary of state was the
so-called Asia pivot" that refocused U.S. diplomacy away from the
Middle East and toward the Asian countries that are central to the
TPP, Sracic noted.
Conversely, if Clinton were to embrace the pact and campaign on it,
she would put herself at odds with Democratic stalwarts such as
former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland who is running for a Senate seat
and Senator Sherrod Brown, also from Ohio, who opposes the
fast-track legislation as drafted and is prodding Clinton to make
her views known.
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CAUTIOUS RESPONSE SO FAR
For the moment, Clinton's response was noncommittal.
In a statement on Friday, Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill said
Clinton believes the United States "should be willing to walk away"
from any trade measure that does not "protect American workers and
create more good jobs at home" while also strengthening national
security.
Clinton, he said, "will be watching closely" to see how the final
deal tackles currency manipulation, labor rights and other
contentious issues.
The AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. labor organization, is already working
to stop the trade deal and is urging its members to sign a petition
"and tell Congress to stop the fast-track bill; it's undemocratic
and bad for working families."
Meanwhile former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, who is
considering challenging Clinton for the Democratic presidential
nomination, on Friday laid down a marker when he blasted TPA and
said, "Chasing cheaper labor abroad will not help us build a
stronger economy here at home."
Labor was a power to be reckoned with when TPA was before Congress
in late 2001. At the time, the House of Representatives voted
215-214 in favor of giving then-President George W. Bush fast-track
negotiating authority. A mere 21 Democrats voted yes while 189 voted
no.
That is a stark result that Clinton likely will weigh when forming
and explaining her position to voters.
A senior House Democratic aide said Obama will "have to make a
strong case" for TPA and TPP and "educate a lot of people" to win
the day.
(Additional reporting by Jonathan Allen n New York; Editing by Kevin
Drawbaugh and Frances Kerry)
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