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 But the Republican contenders who will speak at the group's annual
Spring Kick-Off face a more delicate balance: How to address
pressure from the Christian group to toe the conservative line on a
number of social issues such as abortion and gay marriage without
alienating members of the broader party who are more focused on the
economy or foreign policy.
Iowa holds the country's first nominating contests with its
caucuses, giving the small, Midwestern state an outsized role in the
presidential scrum. But winning the hearts and votes of the farmland
state's large conservative bloc is not enough.
“Certainly Christian conservatives will be up to half of all the
likely caucus goers,” said Doug Gross, who chaired Mitt Romney’s
2008 Iowa campaign. “You can’t ignore what they care about.”
But, he added, no candidate will be able to win the nomination on
their backs alone. “You have to include them without letting them be
your only source of support,” he said.
 Without a broad coalition of voters, many with different priorities
or expectations, Republican hopefuls could find themselves locked
out of the party nomination and thus the presidency.
The lineup underscores the importance of the Iowa event: Florida
Senator Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, both spoken
of as top-tier Republican White House aspirants; Senators Rand Paul
and Ted Cruz, and evangelical favorites Mike Huckabee and Rick
Santorum. Others on the agenda are Rick Perry, Governor Bobby Jindal
and Carly Fiorina.
However, two high-profile Republicans who are expected to seek their
party's nomination, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie, will not be in attendance.
Candidates who do well in Iowa - especially against expectations -
can find themselves gaining a powerful boost as they move on to
campaign in other states.
Christian conservatives have been a reliable voting bloc for
Republicans. In the 2014 House elections, 78 percent of white
evangelicals voted Republican, according to Pew Research.
But determining how big a role evangelicals play in the party is
difficult, with inconsistent research numbers, shifting attitudes
nationally on social issues and changing U.S. demographics.
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On gay marriage, for example, in 2001, only 35 percent of Americans
supported same sex marriage, according to Pew Research polling. In
2014, 52 percent supported it.
But according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data, 61 percent of likely
voters in Republican primaries oppose gay marriage.
“Where the Christian conservatives get into trouble ... is when they
attempt to be exclusive, where you either share my world view or
you’re going to go to hell. That’s not the approach you can take,"
said Gross.”
U.S. Census numbers underscore changes in the voting population. The
Census Bureau projects that the United States will become a
majority-minority country by 2043, with no single racial group in
the majority.
Still, social conservatives say they’re aware that a range of issues
will matter to voters in the 2016 election, and that no single
candidate will likely give them everything they want.
“There’s no candidate that can fix everything immediately,” said
Connie Schmett, a longtime Iowa Republican activist who plans to be
at Saturday’s event.
But social issues will dominate on Saturday, with questions on the
economy and foreign policy receding, at least for the evening.
“Faith and freedom folks, its title sort of discloses the content,”
said Richard Schwarm, a former Iowa Republican Party chairman.
(Reporting by Luciana Lopez; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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