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			 Officials with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant 
			Health Inspection Service (APHIS) told Reuters the H5N2 virus – 
			along with two other highly pathogenic strains of bird flu - will 
			likely be passed among birds at breeding grounds in the northern 
			United States and Canada through the summer. 
			 
			When the weather turns cool in the fall, higher numbers of infected 
			wild birds are expected to move the viruses south again. The strains 
			are difficult to control, say scientists, in part because wild birds 
			– especially ducks – can carry the viruses without appearing to be 
			sick. 
			 
			The USDA statement marks a shift in tone in the agency's assessment 
			of the likelihood for a renewed outbreak tied to fall migration. 
			More than 15 million commercial birds nationwide have died or are 
			expected to be killed in the current outbreak, and exports of U.S. 
			poultry and eggs have slowed sharply. 
			 
			A key concern has been whether the viruses will become endemic in 
			the nation’s wild bird population, eventually spreading them to the 
			East Coast and down into the heart of the nation’s chicken broiler 
			production states in the South and Southeast. 
			
			  
			  
			Less than a week ago, USDA’s Chief Veterinary Officer John Clifford 
			told reporters he wasn’t “forecasting anything for the fall.” If the 
			virus were to reappear then, Clifford said it would likely be found 
			along migratory paths that cross over top-producing chicken 
			productions states such as Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. 
			 
			What impact the virus might have on chicken farms in the South is 
			not known. But the nation’s poultry industry, which is taking an 
			economic hit from the rapidly escalating outbreak, is extremely 
			alarmed at the prospect of wider exposure. 
			 
			One turkey processing plant in Willmar, Minnesota, has reduced its 
			operations to four days a week because “they don’t have enough 
			birds,” U.S. Rep Collin Peterson, a Democrat from Minnesota, told 
			reporters on Tuesday. Other Midwestern poultry producers are 
			uncertain whether their farms will survive outbreaks of the flu 
			because of production losses, Peterson said. 
			 
			“Folks on the East Coast better be paying attention,” said Peterson, 
			whose state has seen more farms infected with avian flu than any 
			other. 
			 
			FEAR OF VIRUS BECOMING ENDEMIC 
			 
			The outbreak’s reach expanded to 14 states on Tuesday, when APHIS 
			reported that highly pathogenic H5N2 was identified in two wild 
			birds in Kentucky. 
			 
			The avian flu viruses currently killing U.S. poultry first 
			originated as a single H5N8 virus in Asia, and quickly spread among 
			wild birds along migratory pathways. 
			
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			This virus swapped genes with North American influenza viruses to 
			create the new H5N2 virus, which has been responsible for the 
			slaughter of millions of chickens and turkeys in the Midwest. It 
			also spawned a new version of H5N1, a distant cousin of the deadly 
			Asian bird flu virus. 
			 
			Based on evidence gathered so far from tracking wild and domestic 
			birds between December and April, "it is highly probable" that the 
			viruses will be maintained in some of the North American wild duck 
			populations through the summer breeding season, APHIS officials said 
			in an email. 
			 
			Young birds will be at the highest risk of infection. 
			 
			“Usually these young birds are the most susceptible ones. They have 
			no immunity. They are loaded with influenza viruses,” said Dr. Rubin 
			Donis, an associate director for policy and preparedness in the 
			Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza division. 
			If the viruses becomes part of that breeding reservoir, “then we may 
			be doing control and eradication for years to come,” Donis said. 
			“The problem is with wildlife, there is no way to control their 
			movements or their methods.” 
			 
			As young, infected “hatch-year” birds mingle with other hatch-year 
			birds and adults during the migration season, “we anticipate higher 
			numbers of infected birds next fall to move these viruses south 
			again, into areas in which they are currently being detected and 
			potentially areas where we have yet to detect them,” APHIS said in 
			the statement sent to Reuters. 
			
			  
			The USDA said a team of state and federal veterinarians, wildlife 
			biologists and other scientists have developed a plan to track 
			highly pathogenic avian flu among migratory birds. A draft of the 
			plan is due to be released to the public on June 1. 
			 
			(Reporting By Julie Steenhuysen and P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago. 
			Additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Washington D.C. Editing by 
			Michele Gershberg and Sue Horton.) 
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