The display of dissent within the group's secretive core is the
clearest sign yet of the challenge Mansour faces in uniting a group
already split over whether to pursue peace talks with the Afghan
government and facing a new, external threat, Islamic State.
Rifts in the Taliban leadership could widen after confirmation this
week of the death of elusive founder Omar.
Mansour, Omar's longtime deputy who has been effectively in charge
for years, favors talks to bring an end to more than 13 years of
war. He recently sent a delegation to inaugural meetings with Afghan
officials hosted by Pakistan, hailed as a breakthrough.
But Mansour, 50, has powerful rivals within the Taliban who oppose
negotiations and have been pushing for Mullah Omar's son Yaqoob to
take over the movement.
Yaqoob and his uncle Abdul Manan, Omar's younger brother, were among
more than a dozen Taliban figures who walked out of Wednesday's
leadership meeting held in the western Pakistani city of Quetta,
according to three people who were at the shura, or gathering.
"Actually, it wasn't a Taliban Leadership Council meeting. Mansoor
had invited only members of his group to pave the way for his
election," said one of the sources, a senior member of Taliban in
Quetta. "And when Yaqoob and Manan noticed this, they left the
meeting."
Among those opposing Mansour's leadership are Mullah Mohammad Rasool
and Mullah Hasan Rahmani, two influential Taliban figures with their
own power bases who back Yaqoob.
But Mansour got a boost late on Friday with the surprise backing of
his longtime rival, battlefield commander Abdul Qayum Zakir, a
former inmate of the U.S. prison in Cuba's Guantanamo Bay.
In a letter published on the Taliban website, Zakir wrote that he
had read reports "that I had differences with Mullah Akhtar Mohammad
Mansour. Let me assure that this isn't true".
A Taliban commander close to Zakir, Nasrallah Akhund, confirmed by
telephone that Zakir wrote the letter.
PEACE TALKS IN JEOPARDY
The leadership gathering was held outside Quetta, where many Taliban
leaders have been based since their hardline regime in Afghanistan
was toppled in a 2001 U.S.-led military intervention.
Afghan Taliban leaders have long had sanctuaries in Pakistan, even
as Pakistani government officials have denied offering support in
recent years.
Mansour leads the Taliban's strongest faction and appears to control
most of its spokesmen, websites and statements, said Graeme Smith,
senior Afghanistan analyst for the think-tank International Crisis
Group. But some intelligence officials estimate Mansour only
directly controls about 40 percent of fighters in the field, he
said.
That could make it difficult for him to deliver on any ceasefire
that could emerge from future negotiations.
And Taliban insiders say that by sending a three-member delegation
to meet Afghan officials in the Pakistani resort of Murree earlier
in July, Mansour sparked new criticism.
Especially riled were members of the Taliban's political office in
Qatar, who insisted only they were empowered to negotiate.
"People ... were not happy with Mullah Mansour when he agreed with
Pakistan ... to hold a meeting with Kabul," said a Taliban
commander based in Quetta. "The Qatar office wasn't taken into
confidence before taking such an important decision."
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The Quetta shura has sent a six-member team to Qatari capital Doha
to meet with one of its leaders, Tayyab Agha, seeking his support
for Mansour, according to another Taliban source close to the
leadership.
RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN
The divisions threaten a formal split in the Taliban. They also
provide an opening to rival Islamic State (IS), the Middle
East-based extremist movement that has attracted renegade Taliban
commanders in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This month, two Afghan militant groups swore allegiance to Islamic
State, and more could follow suit.
Despite threats both internal and external, Taliban fighters have
been gaining territory in Afghanistan, where they are trying to
topple the Western-backed government.
This week another district, this time in the south, fell to
insurgents, who have exploited the absence of most NATO troops after
they withdrew at the end of last year.
Opponents of Mansour criticize him for being too close to Pakistan's
military, which has long been accused of supporting the Afghan
insurgency to maintain regional influence.
Pakistan has pushed Taliban leaders based in its territory hard to
come to the negotiating table at the request of ally China and
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
But many Taliban, and some Afghan officials, fear the recent talks
are a ploy by Pakistan to retain control. The Pakistanis deny that.
Still, Mansour cannot afford to alienate Pakistan, said Saifullah
Mahsud of the Islamabad-based FATA Research Centre. "No matter who
is in charge of the Taliban in Afghanistan, they will have no choice
but to have a good relationship with the Pakistani state. It's a
matter of survival," he said. "I don't think this agreement to go to
the negotiating table is determined by personality; it's more about
the circumstances."
Despite the opposition, Mansour retains a personal power base within
the Taliban, and if he can keep the movement together it could lead
to a new era for the insurgents.
Bette Dam, author of an upcoming biography of Mullah Omar, said the
supreme leader's absence paralyzed many Taliban officials.
Mansour could provide a more active focus for both the movement's
rank-and-file and those seeking to engage the Taliban.
"If he gets the credibility, it might not be such bad news to have
Mansour replace the invisible Mullah Omar," Dam said.
(Additional reporting by Katharine Houreld in Islamabad and Jessica
Donati in Kabul; Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by Mike
Collett-White)
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