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 Williston, North Dakota, has seen its population drop about 6
percent since last summer, according to wastewater data relied upon
heavily by city planning officials.
They turned to measuring effluent because it was a much faster and
more accurate way to track population than alternatives such as
construction permits, school enrollment, tax receipts or airport
boardings.
U.S. Census Bureau figures are usually too old as a full-fledged
population count only happens once a decade, with sporadic updates
in between. That's not going to catch any swift changes in the
population of cities like Williston.
"Here in Williston, the growth rate is not predictable," said David
Tuan, director of the city's public works department. "Measuring
wastewater flow tends to be the most-efficient way to track
population."
The recent high-water mark for Williston's population was 33,866 in
August of last year, just before the oil price collapse. Crude oil
has fallen more than 50 percent in the past year and hurt many
companies’ finances, leading to massive cost cutting, including the
cancellation of projects and lay offs.
By June of this year, the town had shrunk to 31,800 people,
according to the sewage data.
"I attribute that to the slowdown in oil prices," said Tuan.
Among the companies who have made big job cuts here are Halliburton
Co and Schlumberger NV, alongside many smaller peers.
Williston's restaurants and retailers still bustle with activity
most days, but many newly built apartment complexes are less than 80
percent full, according to real estate experts as supply overtakes
demand.
City officials began studying sewage data after struggling to know
how many people were pouring into their city during the boom. The
latest Census estimate, from July 2014, shows just 24,562 residents
in Williston.
Local officials now estimate the population by dividing daily
effluent flow by 75, the number of gallons of wastewater each
resident is estimated to produce each day. Weather and construction
can affect the flows.
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When figuring out how large to make a sewage treatment plant,
engineers have long multiplied the number of residents by the 75
gallon rule of thumb. Williston simply inverts this formula, a
method academics have touted for its accuracy in measuring
population.
In contrast, authorities in some cities - such as New York - track
housing supply and usage to estimate population.
Other data points show a contracting economy: Williston's taxable
sales fell 8.5 percent in the first quarter to $601.9 million,
according to state data.
The contractions could portend an ominous turn for Williston, ranked
as the fastest-growing small city in America for the past three
years.
Many locals painfully recall two previous oil booms and busts in the
1950s and 1980s, when the local newspaper was filled with home
foreclosure notices and the city government was left deep in debt.
Nor is the pain relegated to Williston. Midland, a key oil hub city
in west Texas, saw a planned 58-story skyscraper canceled last year
as the oil price slid.
Williston is betting the growth will return, though some analysts
are predicting oil prices will stay around $50 per barrel for some
time.
That may mean the city's population won't double to 60,000 by 2020,
as demographers have forecast. A new sewage plant – which is
currently under construction and due to open in two years – was
designed to handle that population spurt.
For graphic click http://link.reuters.com/dyt35w
(Reporting by Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Terry Wade and Martin
Howell)
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