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 When team owner Joe Gibbs all but confirmed this week that Erik
Jones will advance to the Sprint Cup after a full season next year
in the Xfinity Series, it set off speculation about which of his
four current drivers -- each an established star -- Jones would
replace in 2017.
NASCAR rules limit teams to four entries, meaning Denny Hamlin or
Matt Kenseth might be on the hot seat in 2017. Carl Edwards has a
three-year contract extending through 2017 and Kyle Busch, who has
won four of six races, is a young driver the team plans to keep.
The confirmation of the plan for Jones also sparked speculation
about Gibbs and Toyota setting up an alliance with another team --
much like the ones enjoyed by Chevy between Hendrick Motorsports and
Stewart Haas Racing, plus Richard Childress Racing and Furniture Row
Racing. Each of those alliances has produced victories this year,
although RCR continues to look for one.
The establishment of a so-called satellite team by Toyota seems
possible because it appears unlikely that Toyota will re-up with
Michael Waltrip Racing.
Rob Kauffman, the current 50 percent owner of MWR, may be the key. A
former owner of Fortress Investment Group, Kauffman has confirmed
that he is investing in the Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates
team beginning in 2016, which leaves MWR with no confirmed
manufacturer deal, no sponsorship for one of its two entries and no
independent financing. The lone MWR entry with a confirmed deal is
the car of Clint Bowyer, sponsored by 5-Hour Energy and a candidate
to make this year's Chase.
Speculation remains rife, however, that Bowyer and 5-Hour will move
to Ganassi's team next year with Kauffman.
Where does the Furniture Row team, based in Denver, fit in? Team
owner Barney Visser has made it clear he feels his Chevy team is
short-changed in its manufacturer arrangement -- although it
benefits from the alliance with the Childress team. Visser's team
remains a possible candidate for Toyota, but his lone entry is
self-sponsored and no sponsorship for additional cars is on the
horizon.
The key to all of these moves remains Toyota. Dave Wilson, president
of Toyota Racing Development, has confirmed that he wants more
Toyotas in the Chase. With Busch's victory in the Brickyard 400, the
Japanese company has won just about everything in NASCAR's premier
series except the championship. But Wilson has stopped short of
talking about any plans with MWR or Furniture Row, saying each team
had yet to make any decisions.
Wilson has said he thinks it may take as many as seven or eight
Toyota drivers in the Chase each year to eventually win a
championship. As it stands in 2015, Chevy has five drivers confirmed
in the Chase, with Jamie McMurray of Ganassi and Jeff Gordon of
Hendrick likely to survive in the points. Ford has two -- both
Penske drivers. Toyota will have four confirmed once Busch gains the
Top 30 in points, as required by NASCAR's ruling following the
driver's injuries the day before the Daytona 500.
Toyota might make five drivers if Bowyer can win one of the
remaining five races or eke into the title run on points. So what
can Toyota do to increase its chances starting in 2017 -- aside from
bringing in young talents like Jones and current Camping World
Toyota Truck Series points leader Matt Crafton?
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If it's a numbers game, as Wilson suggests, then an alliance of two
strong teams is the best bet. Ganassi has deals in place with
Hendrick Motorsports for engines and is one of Chevy's teams. But
what about 2017? Is it possible that Ganassi, strengthened by
Kauffman's financing and the presence of a third car driven by
Bowyer and sponsored by 5-Hour, could switch to Toyota
That could create a powerhouse alliance between the Gibbs and
Ganassi teams similar to what Chevy has between Hendrick and
Stewart-Hass, which has four drivers with multiple wins this year.
It also could resolve the problem of where to place one of the Gibbs
team's veteran winners with sponsorship in 2017, when Jones steps up
to the Sprint Cup. Instead of creating a "satellite" team, Toyota
could work within established winning organizations, including two
people it has done business with previously -- Kauffman and Ganassi.
MWR likely would have faltered badly if Kauffman had not invested in
the team late in its first season in 2007, also the first season for
Toyota in the Sprint Cup. Kauffman was not involved in MWR's "rocket
fuel" cheating scandal before the Daytona 500 that year, but he
helped guide the team through the rocky waters of "Spingate" in the
aftermath of the Richmond race in 2013. As it is, the talent drain
in the aftermath of the scandal is reflected in the team's current
winless season.
Ganassi stunned the CART world when he switched from Honda power to
Toyota for the 2000 season and eventually won an IndyCar
championship for Toyota. He has scored wins in the Rolex 24 at
Daytona and Grand-Am championships under power from Lexus-badged
engines built by Toyota. Currently under Chevy power in the Indy
Racing league, Ganassi, like team owner Roger Penske, has mastered
the art of racing for different manufacturers in different series.
With the exception of Michael Waltrip, a part-time broadcaster as
well as team owner, the key principals in these scenarios are
currently talking in generalities -- in part to keep a focus on this
year's Chase. Where it all ends up is a matter of speculation beyond
Kauffman's confirmed move.
Because of the high cost of competing in NASCAR's premier series,
consolidation of some sort through alliances to get the benefits of
multiple entries seems inevitable. And it's impossible for Toyota to
get more than four entries into the Chase in the future if MWR folds
and it doesn't strike a major deal elsewhere.
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