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 While Bush has been eclipsed by Trump in opinion polls, the former
Florida governor is riding high with online traders who give him a
40 percent chance to capture the party's presidential nomination,
according to prediction market aggregator PredictWise.com.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio is a distant second with a 15 percent
chance, and Trump has risen to third in recent weeks with 14
percent, according to PredictWise, which aggregates about a
half-dozen political prediction markets.
Those markets, in which traders bet on the outcomes of various
events, often have a better track record than polls in determining a
winner in elections. Bush has been their favorite since mid-2014,
said David Rothschild, an economist who runs PredictWise.
"Jeb Bush has been steady at the top at between 45 percent and 40
percent, where he is now. He certainly hasn't fallen off
noticeably," Rothschild said.
 In opinion polls, Trump has shot past Bush in recent weeks as the
two candidates have feuded over Trump's hard-line immigration plan
calling for deportation of illegal immigrants.
In the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Bush runs second in the
17-strong Republican field at 11 percent behind Trump's 22 percent.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Tuesday showed Bush tumbling into a tie for
third behind Trump, as Bush's support fell from 16 percent to 8
percent over five days.
At Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, Bush remains the favorite with 13/8
odds of capturing the Republican nomination for the November 2016
election, said spokesman Rory Scott.
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"Jeb Bush has drifted a tiny little bit, probably because of the
rise of Trump, but he's still the favorite and he's been pretty
stable," Scott said.
Trump has been on the move, however, attracting about 50 percent of
the bets since the first debate earlier this month and rising to
second, Scott said.
For the Democrats, front-runner Hillary Clinton has been a steady
and dominating force at the top of the presidential pack in the
markets since immediately after the 2012 election.
She currently is given a 72 percent chance of winning the nomination
by PredictWise, with Vice President Joe Biden, who is still
pondering a possible bid, in second at 14 percent.
(Reporting by John Whitesides; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
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