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 No one in Germany is questioning her assessment any longer.
In the past two weeks, the country has been shaken by a perfect
storm of headlines that have elevated the refugee issue, long seen
in Germany as primarily a southern European problem, to the very top
of the public and political agenda.
First, Merkel's interior minister announced that he expected 800,000
people to seek asylum in Germany this year, nearly double the amount
that had been forecast only a few months before and almost four
times last year's total.
Next came the far-right protests against refugees in the eastern
town of Heidenau that left over 30 police injured and revived the
specter of racist violence that Germany experienced in the early
1990s, the last time asylum numbers surged.
Then last Thursday, an abandoned truck with 71 dead migrants was
found on a highway in Austria, just as Merkel arrived in Vienna for
a conference on the western Balkans.
She had been jeered as a "traitor" by locals in Heidenau the day
before for showing solidarity with refugees there and appeared
visibly shaken in Vienna as she spoke to reporters about the
gruesome new discovery.
All of a sudden it seems, the depth of the refugee crisis is
beginning to register in Germany.
Merkel is no stranger to crises. Her ten years in power have been
dominated by the global financial meltdown, turmoil in the euro zone
and the conflict with Russia over Ukraine. But those crises were
distant for most Germans.
Now she must wrestle with a problem that is having a profound effect
on communities across Germany.
"During the euro crisis people had the impression that it was other
countries that had a problem and Germany was in good shape. Now the
burden is very much at home," German weekly Die Zeit wrote this
week. "For the first time since Merkel came to power, Germany could
begin to look like a problem country."
POLITICAL FALLOUT
Merkel remains hugely popular after a decade as chancellor that has
coincided with Germany's re-emergence as an economic power and
influential player in foreign affairs.
During the Ukraine and euro zone crises, Europe has looked to her to
lead and she has in her own cautious step-by-step way. But the
refugee crisis is a challenge of an entirely different dimension and
complexity.
It is a local, national and European problem. And it will likely
require the kind of proactive rally-the-people leadership that
Merkel has not always been comfortable with in the past.
She waited nearly three days to speak out against the violence in
Heidenau, drawing sharp criticism and showing that she is still
finding her feet in this crisis.
"A lot will be asked of the politicians," Die Zeit said. "They must
recognize that we are in a new world and find the appropriate words
for it."
In Germany, the problems start with towns and cities that have found
themselves overwhelmed by a flood of asylum seekers who need to be
housed, fed and treated for health problems.
Last week, Merkel's cabinet agreed to raise the level of federal
support for local communities to 1 billion euros. And there is talk
that this sum could be tripled at a "refugee summit" that the
government will hold on Sept. 24. But experts say this would still
fall far short of what is required.
Coloring the debate over resources are concerns that if Germany does
too much -- one idea is to provide refugees with special cards so
they can visit doctors without first obtaining health insurance --
it will only encourage more to make the trek north to Germany.
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Too much government support could also deepen resentment among
average Germans who are struggling to make ends meet, boosting
support for right-wing parties like the Alternative for Germany
(AfD) at the expense of the ruling parties.
Already, politicians in Berlin are worrying about how the crisis
might affect important state elections next March and the federal
vote in 2017, when Merkel is widely expected to run for a fourth
term.
Senior Social Democrats (SPD) are thinking about ways to prevent the
flood of refugees from showing up in the unemployment statistics
ahead of those votes. People in Merkel's entourage describe the
crisis as having "explosive" potential for her party, which remains
far ahead in opinion polls for now.
"OUT OF CONTROL"
Then there are the concerns about how to handle the far-right
backlash against refugees, which has been centered in the former
communist east of the country, but also led to almost daily arson
attacks in western states like Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemburg and North
Rhine Westphalia.
Most of these attacks have been on empty buildings slated to become
shelters but politicians admit that it is only a matter of time
before refugees are injured or killed.
"Very quickly you could have a situation like we had in the early
1990s where shelters full of refugees are being attacked," said one
senior official in Berlin who requested anonymity because of the
sensitivity of the issue. "Something like this can quickly get out
of the control of the politicians."
For much of the post-war period, German politicians referred to
immigrants as "Gastarbeiter", or guest workers, as if they would
return to their home countries once the work was done.
That illusion persisted until quite recently when the realization
began to set in that Germany desperately needed immigrants to cope
with a looming demographic crisis caused by its low birth rate.
Still, the main focus was on bringing in skilled labor to fill the
needs of the German "Mittelstand", or small business community.
Many of the Syrians, Kosovars, Eritreans and Iraqis that are coming
to Germany now do not fit that bill.
The biggest challenge of all for Merkel may be to lead Europe
towards a common asylum policy. German politicians express
exasperation these days at the refusal of some EU partners to accept
their "fair share" of refugees.
Unless this is resolved soon, they fear, then the openness of
ordinary Germans could vanish quickly.
The optimists in Berlin point to the euro zone and Ukraine crises as
examples of where Europe has defied the odds and remained united. It
will fall primarily to Merkel to deliver the same consensus on
refugees.
"The asylum issue could be the next big project where we show
whether we're capable of working together," Merkel said in
mid-August.
(Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke, Thorsten Severin, Holger
Hansen; Writing by Noah Barkin; editing by Anna Willard)
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